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On Thursday, Goldman Sachs analyst Lizzie Dove increased the price target on Travel + Leisure stock (NYSE: TNL) to $62 from the previous $59, while retaining a Neutral rating on the shares. The stock, currently trading near its 52-week high of $58.95, has demonstrated remarkable momentum with a 46% return over the past year. According to InvestingPro analysis, the company maintains a "GREAT" financial health score of 3.1. The adjustment follows Travel + Leisure’s fourth-quarter earnings and forward guidance, which largely surpassed market expectations, setting a high benchmark for industry counterparts.
Dove highlighted the unexpected acceleration of Volume Per Guest (VPG) trends, which saw a 7.4% rise in the fourth quarter. However, this was tempered by a modest 1.7% year-over-year growth in tour numbers. The company’s overall revenue grew by 3.04% in the last twelve months, with a healthy gross profit margin of 49%. Despite a different composition in the gross Vacation Ownership Interest (VOI) sales forecast for 2025, with increased VPG growth but fewer tours, the overall revenue projections remain similar to previous estimates.
The analysis by Goldman Sachs did not reveal any major surprises concerning loan loss provisions, though expectations are for the first quarter to remain high. Year-over-year improvements in this area are not anticipated until later in 2025. Dove noted improvements in cost management as a significant positive development, with the last two quarters showing better-than-expected performance.
The report concluded with a positive outlook on Travel + Leisure’s financial projections, suggesting that the company’s guidance for 2025 might be conservative. The company currently trades at an attractive P/E ratio of 9.86 and offers a dividend yield of 3.46%. However, Goldman Sachs remains cautious, awaiting further evidence of the company’s ability to simultaneously achieve meaningful growth in VPG and tours, as well as improvements in provisions year-over-year. The firm’s stance remains neutral, despite the raised price target, pending these additional proof points. For a deeper analysis of TNL’s valuation and growth prospects, including 10+ additional ProTips and comprehensive financial metrics, visit InvestingPro.
In other recent news, Travel + Leisure Co has reported its fourth-quarter 2024 financial results, exceeding expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.72, surpassing the forecasted $1.62. The company also achieved a revenue of $971 million, which was above the expected $957.63 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $252 million, a 5% increase, highlighting the company’s robust performance. Analyst Aaron Hecht from Citizens JMP raised the price target for Travel + Leisure to $60 from $55, maintaining a Market Outperform rating, following the company’s strong earnings. Hecht’s analysis reflects confidence in the company’s ability to deliver value through its timeshare products and financial strategies.
The company has projected an Adjusted EBITDA range of $955 million to $985 million for 2025, with Gross Vacation Ownership Interest (VOI) Sales expected to reach $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion. Despite facing challenges such as elevated delinquencies and macroeconomic pressures, Travel + Leisure remains optimistic about its future growth prospects. The company plans to focus on expanding its owner base and enhancing product offerings, including the launch of Sports Illustrated sales. CEO Michael Brown emphasized the success of the vacation ownership business and the disciplined capital allocation strategy, which includes returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
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