Guggenheim cuts MongoDB stock target to $300, keeps Buy rating

Published 06/03/2025, 14:30
Guggenheim cuts MongoDB stock target to $300, keeps Buy rating

On Thursday, Guggenheim Securities adjusted their price target for MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB) shares, reducing it from $325.00 to $300.00, while maintaining a Buy rating on the company. Analyst Howard Ma at Guggenheim highlighted the disparity between MongoDB’s business performance and its market valuation, particularly after a sharp after-hours sell-off that saw the company’s shares fall by 16%. Currently trading at $264.13, InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is fairly valued, with analysts’ targets ranging from $180 to $520. Despite recent volatility, MongoDB has delivered a 13.45% return year-to-date.

Ma pointed out that MongoDB’s conservative guidance, in contrast to its peers’ more aggressive forecasting, might have fueled the sell-off. However, he noted that if the $50 million impact from non-Atlas upfront multi-year license headwinds were considered, the FY26 guidance would imply a growth of 14-16% and a similar increase in operating profit.

MongoDB’s Atlas (NYSE:ATCO) platform, which accounts for 71% of total revenue, grew by 24% in the fourth quarter, outperforming both consensus estimates of 19% and buy-side expectations of 23%. Adjusted for prior-year unused commitments, the growth rate would be 28%. Ma expects Atlas growth to remain stable or improve in FY26 due to various factors, including a higher quality FY25 customer cohort, additional workloads from enterprise agreement customers, and benefits from recent investments in AI. InvestingPro data reveals MongoDB maintains impressive fundamentals with a 73.32% gross profit margin and 19.22% revenue growth. For deeper insights into MongoDB’s financial health and growth prospects, including 8 additional ProTips, explore the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.

The analyst also mentioned that FY26 is viewed as a transition year by MongoDB’s management. They plan to invest in go-to-market strategies to enhance brand awareness and drive more relational migrations, with Java applications on Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) identified as a particular opportunity. Additionally, R&D efforts will focus on integrating the Voyage AI acquisition to create a comprehensive platform for building Generation AI applications.

Despite the revised price target, Guggenheim’s confidence in MongoDB’s stock remains, with the firm maintaining its Buy rating and adjusting the price target to reflect lowered revenue forecasts.

In other recent news, MongoDB’s fourth-quarter results showed a notable performance, with revenues reaching $548 million, a 20% increase from the previous year, surpassing consensus estimates of $519 million. William Blair reaffirmed its Outperform rating, highlighting MongoDB’s non-GAAP operating margin of 20.5%, which exceeded forecasts by 932 basis points. Despite these positive results, the company’s Net Revenue Retention rate was slightly below the target, at approximately 118%.

Cantor Fitzgerald maintained an Overweight rating but adjusted the price target to $332, citing optimism about the Atlas platform’s performance. Piper Sandler also maintained an Overweight rating but reduced the price target to $280, noting growth concerns and headwinds in the Enterprise Agreement segment. Canaccord Genuity lowered its price target to $320 while maintaining a Buy rating, emphasizing MongoDB’s potential in the AI value chain.

Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities reduced the price target to $250 and maintained a Neutral rating, pointing out MongoDB’s conservative revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026. The company plans to focus on enterprise customers and AI opportunities, although Mizuho does not foresee immediate benefits from this strategy. These developments reflect varying analyst perspectives on MongoDB’s growth prospects and strategic direction.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.