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On Wednesday, Guggenheim Securities analyst Gregory Francfort downgraded Wendy’s (NASDAQ:WEN) shares from Buy to Neutral, adding to a broader cautious stance reflected in 21 analysts recently revising their earnings estimates downward according to InvestingPro data. The change in rating comes as the analyst suggested that Wendy’s, a company traditionally seen as a favorable brand for franchisees, requires a strategic reassessment. Francfort pointed out that while Wendy’s has been a strong investment for franchisees over the past two decades, there is now a need to balance unit growth with franchisee profitability.
Francfort’s analysis indicated that Wendy’s has been stringent in enforcing development agreement commitments among its domestic franchisees. He believes that the company’s global growth target of 3-4% for new units should be reconsidered to focus more on domestic same-store sales (SSS) and improving cash-on-cash returns for franchisees.
Despite the downgrade, Francfort noted that Wendy’s stock is currently trading at what he considers a cheap valuation, with a roughly 10% free cash flow yield. Trading at 12.7x earnings and near its 52-week low of $11.70, the stock has declined over 33% in the past six months. InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis suggests the stock is currently fairly valued, while maintaining an attractive 4.69% dividend yield. He mentioned that a shift in the company’s strategic priorities could potentially unlock shareholder value from the current levels. However, Francfort stated that evidence of such a change would be necessary before he could adopt a more constructive view on the stock again.
The decision to remove the price target was also highlighted, signaling a wait-and-see approach regarding Wendy’s future performance and strategic direction. Wendy’s stock performance and investor sentiment will likely be influenced by the company’s response to these insights and its ability to adapt its growth strategy in a way that satisfies both franchisees and shareholders. For deeper insights into Wendy’s financial health and growth prospects, investors can access comprehensive analysis and additional ProTips through InvestingPro’s detailed research reports.
In other recent news, Wendy’s reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.20, meeting analyst expectations. However, revenue fell short at $523.5 million, below the anticipated $529.73 million. The company experienced a 2.8% decline in U.S. same-store sales, while international sales increased by 2.3%. Following these results, several analyst firms adjusted their outlooks for Wendy’s. BMO Capital Markets reduced its price target for Wendy’s shares to $15, maintaining a Market Perform rating, while Evercore ISI also cut its target to $15, keeping an In Line rating. UBS maintained a Neutral rating with a $14 price target, citing weaker-than-expected same-store sales and a reduction in 2025 guidance. Loop Capital, despite lowering its price target from $26 to $21, retained a Buy rating, expressing confidence in Wendy’s long-term value proposition. Wendy’s has revised its full-year 2025 guidance downward, anticipating global system sales to be flat to down 2%, and adjusted EBITDA is projected between $530 million and $545 million.
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