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On Tuesday, Guggenheim resumed coverage on Alumis Inc (NASDAQ: ALMS) by issuing a Buy rating and setting a price target of $18.00, representing significant upside from the current trading price of $3.43. The firm’s analysts highlighted the completion of Alumis’s merger with Acelyrin and provided an update on the company’s recent progress in drug development. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for the stock range from $14 to $29, though it’s worth noting the stock has declined 74% over the past year.Want deeper insights? InvestingPro subscribers have access to 10+ additional expert tips and comprehensive analyst coverage data for Alumis.
Alumis has reached significant milestones recently, including the release of 52-week Phase II Open-Label Extension (OLE) data for ESK-001, an oral TYK2 inhibitor used in the treatment of psoriasis. The data, announced in March, revealed sustained or improved efficacy of the drug, with 61.3% of patients achieving a PASI-90 score and 38.8% reaching PASI-100 after one year. The 28-week OLE data had previously shown that patients experienced 82.7%, 63%, and 30.9% for PASI 75, PASI 90, and PASI 100, respectively. The safety and tolerability of ESK-001 at a 40 mg twice-daily dosage were also confirmed over the 52-week period.
Furthermore, Alumis has successfully completed patient enrollment for its Phase III ONWARD trials, which include over 1,700 participants across two separate studies. These trials are designed to assess the efficacy of ESK-001, with primary endpoints being the percentage of patients achieving PASI-75 and a score of 0 or 1 on the static Physician’s Global Assessment (sPGA) at Week 16. An active comparator arm in the trial will involve Apremilast/Otezla, a PDE4 inhibitor developed by Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN). The ONWARD trials are expected to provide their topline results in the first quarter of 2026.
In addition to the developments with ESK-001, Alumis is conducting a Phase IIb LUMUS trial for the treatment of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) with topline data anticipated in 2026. Another compound, A-005, a central nervous system-penetrant TYK2 inhibitor, is slated to enter Phase II studies for multiple sclerosis in the second half of 2025.
The updated financial model from Guggenheim reflects the new share count and cash position following the merger with Acelyrin. Alumis’s current cash estimate of approximately $580 million is expected to fund operations into 2027, which is crucial given the company’s rapid cash burn rate. InvestingPro analysis shows the company maintains a healthy current ratio of 3.73, with liquid assets well exceeding short-term obligations. However, the company’s overall financial health score remains weak, primarily due to negative EBITDA of -$351.45 million in the last twelve months.Unlock comprehensive financial health metrics and exclusive insights with InvestingPro, including detailed cash flow analysis and proprietary Fair Value calculations.
In other recent news, Alumis Inc. has completed its merger with ACELYRIN, Inc., a strategic move that is expected to extend Alumis’s financial runway into 2027. The merger agreement, finalized with ACELYRIN stockholders receiving 0.4814 shares of Alumis common stock for each share they owned, aims to strengthen the combined company’s clinical pipeline and commercial capabilities. Stockholders from both companies have approved the merger, which is anticipated to close in the second quarter of 2025, pending customary closing conditions. The revised merger terms have increased ACELYRIN stockholders’ ownership in the combined entity to approximately 48%, while Alumis stockholders will own about 52%.
Financial advisory services for the merger were provided by Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) & Co. LLC and Guggenheim Securities, LLC, with legal counsel from Cooley LLP, Fenwick & West LLP, and Paul Hastings LLP. In related developments, H.C. Wainwright has adjusted its price target for Alumis to $14.00 from $15.00, while maintaining a Buy rating on the company’s shares. This adjustment follows the updated merger terms, which were seen as a strategic move to enhance shareholder value amidst challenging economic conditions. Alumis’s President and CEO, Martin Babler, has emphasized the potential benefits of the merger, including a stronger financial foundation and enhanced capabilities to advance treatments for immune-mediated diseases.
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