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On Friday, Guggenheim analyst Gregory Francfort increased the price target for Restaurant Brands International (NYSE:QSR) shares to $77.00, up from the previous $71.00, while reiterating a Buy rating on the stock. The adjustment reflects a strategic valuation expansion, with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio now set at 20 times, due to higher multiples for defensive stocks. Currently trading at a P/E of 21.35x and commanding a market cap of $30.66B, InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock is slightly undervalued based on its Fair Value calculation.
Francfort’s analysis acknowledges that no changes have been made to the estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026. However, the revised price target takes into account a 2% positive impact from foreign exchange rates, including the day’s currency fluctuations, and slight reductions in expenses. These factors are partially offset by a projected 2-3% headwind from lower same-store sales (SSS), including a roughly 1% reduction in the 2025 international SSS forecast due to expected increased international resistance to American brands. The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth of 19.71% over the last twelve months, with analysts maintaining a consensus Buy recommendation at 1.88 (on a scale of 1-5).
The report also cites recent strong remodel data from Burger King’s Franchise Disclosure Document (FDD), which has shown encouraging sales lifts from U.S. remodels. This data has bolstered confidence in Burger King’s ability to enhance its assets profitably, despite relatively low average unit volumes (AUVs).
Restaurant Brands International, despite potential risks of a recession impacting franchisees, especially those of Burger King due to their lower profitability, is seen as making sound investments for long-term competitiveness. Francfort notes that the company’s business model is defensive, suggesting resilience in tougher economic conditions.
In other recent news, Restaurant Brands International has acquired Burger King China for approximately $158 million, gaining near-total ownership of the business. The company plans to find a new local partner to inject primary capital into the business, with the new partner becoming the controlling shareholder. Additionally, Restaurant Brands International aims to grow the Tim Hortons business in China, signaling its commitment to expanding in the Chinese market. Meanwhile, analysts at TD Cowen downgraded Restaurant Brands International from Buy to Hold, setting a price target of $70.00. Concerns were raised about potential challenges in the Canadian market and increased competition for Burger King. In contrast, JPMorgan maintained an Overweight rating with a price target of $80.00, citing stronger-than-expected global sales growth and robust performance in certain regions. BMO Capital also expressed confidence, maintaining an Outperform rating and an $86.00 price target, following better-than-expected earnings per share results. Stifel analysts, however, held a Hold rating with a $68.00 target, noting modest EBITDA growth since the acquisition of Popeyes and highlighting potential valuation scenarios under different circumstances.
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