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On Monday, H.C. Wainwright analyst Andrew Fein adjusted the price target for Vigil Neuroscience Inc (NASDAQ: VIGL) shares, lowering it to $14 from the previous $17. Currently trading at $2.02, the stock has experienced a significant decline of nearly 16% over the past week, though it maintains an 18.8% gain year-to-date. Despite the reduction, the firm maintains a Buy rating on the stock. The adjustment comes as Vigil Neuroscience anticipates sharing the final 12-month analysis from the IGNITE Phase 2 trial in the second quarter of 2025. According to InvestingPro, analyst targets for the stock range from $11 to $22, suggesting significant upside potential from current levels.
Fein’s commentary highlighted the FDA’s interest in a potential accelerated approval pathway for Vigil’s drug, iluzanebart, following a post type C meeting. The focus for the 12-month data from the trial will likely be on the 40 mg/Kg dosage, where Vigil will need to present strong biomarker data to support the drug’s ability to predict clinical benefit, which is a requirement for accelerated approval. With a market capitalization of $82.5 million, InvestingPro data reveals the company is quickly burning through cash, with negative free cash flow of $48.6 million in the last twelve months.
According to the six-month data from the trial, key biomarkers such as sTREM2, sCSF1R, and NfL showed favorable directional changes aligned with the drug’s mechanism of action. The analyst pointed out that the reduction in sTREM2 levels indicated a modulation of microglial activity, and there were increases in sCSF1R levels and osteopontin.
The significance of NfL levels in the accelerated approval process was underscored, given that patients with symptomatic ALSP exhibit very high levels of NfL. Vigil’s observations of NfL levels dropping below the baseline could be pivotal for the accelerated approval pathway, along with supportive volumetric MRI (vMRI) data.
Fein’s revised price target also took into account a reassessment of Vigil’s operational expense assumptions beyond the year 2025. This reassessment contributed to the decision to reduce the price target to the new $14 level. As the company moves closer to the potential approval and commercialization of iluzanebart, investors and industry observers will be closely monitoring the forthcoming trial results.
In other recent news, Vigil Neuroscience reported positive Phase 1 data for its Alzheimer’s disease drug candidate, VG-3927. The drug demonstrated a favorable safety profile and achieved a significant reduction of a key biomarker, showing strong target engagement. Despite this progress, Vigil reported an adjusted loss per share of $0.57 for Q4 2024, missing analyst estimates by $0.03. The company ended 2024 with $97.8 million in cash and equivalents, anticipating these funds will support operations into 2026. Research and development expenses for the year increased by 2.3% to $62.3 million. Vigil is also advancing its iluzanebart program for ALSP, with final Phase 2 data expected in Q2 2025. The company plans to pursue an accelerated approval pathway for this treatment. Additionally, Vigil aims to advance VG-3927 into Phase 2 trials starting in Q3 2025.
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