HCA Healthcare stock target cut to $377 by TD Cowen

On Monday, TD Cowen maintained its Buy rating on HCA Healthcare Inc (NYSE: NYSE:HCA) but reduced the price target from $440.00 to $377.00. The adjustment follows the healthcare provider's fourth-quarter 2024 financial report, which showed a modest outperformance in revenue and EBITDA, alongside effective labor management. With a market capitalization of $81.2 billion and last twelve months EBITDA of $13.9 billion, HCA Healthcare reported same-store revenue growth of 6.1%, a 2.8% year-over-year increase in same-store inpatient surgical cases, and a 3.0% rise in same-store admissions. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears undervalued based on its Fair Value metrics, with 8 additional exclusive insights available to subscribers.

The firm's fiscal year 2025 EBITDA guidance was in line with consensus estimates, which contributed to the analyst's decision to update their financial model for HCA. Despite the lowered price target, the firm's valuation of HCA Healthcare is now set at 9.25 times the estimated 2026 EBITDA-NCI. The company maintains strong financial metrics, with revenue growth of 8.67% and an impressive dividend growth of 20% in the last twelve months. InvestingPro data reveals the company has achieved a "GREAT" financial health score of 3.24, suggesting robust operational performance.

The analyst at TD Cowen expressed continued confidence in HCA Healthcare by reiterating the Buy rating, indicating a positive outlook on the stock despite the reduced price target. The report highlighted the company's ability to manage labor effectively and deliver growth in key performance metrics. Trading at a P/E ratio of 14.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.86, the stock shows attractive valuation metrics relative to its growth potential. Discover more detailed insights and comprehensive analysis in the Pro Research Report, available exclusively on InvestingPro.

HCA Healthcare's performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, with its revenue and EBITDA surpassing expectations, suggests a resilient operation amidst the challenges faced by the healthcare industry. The company's same-store growth figures reflect its ability to increase patient volume and surgical cases, which are critical factors for revenue generation in the healthcare sector.

Investors will be watching HCA Healthcare's progress closely, as the company continues to navigate the post-pandemic landscape and the ongoing demands of healthcare management. The updated price target by TD Cowen provides an insight into the firm's expectations for HCA Healthcare's financial trajectory over the coming years.

In other recent news, HCA Healthcare has seen various shifts in analyst price targets. RBC Capital Markets reduced their target to $384, keeping an Outperform rating. They cited influences of Direct Patient Payment dynamics and hurricane disruptions on HCA's fourth-quarter earnings. Despite the reduced target, RBC's Ben Hendrix expressed confidence in HCA's long-term prospects, highlighting the company's strong 8.7% revenue growth.

Similarly, Cantor Fitzgerald maintained an Overweight rating on HCA shares, setting a price target of $405. The firm identified potential challenges for the company in 2025, including a potential decline in Disproportionate Share Hospital Payments and underperformance of the Mission Health acquisition. Despite these, Cantor Fitzgerald expressed confidence in HCA's resilience and strong fundamentals.

Leerink Partners also adjusted their price target on HCA shares to $404, maintaining an Outperform rating. They praised HCA Healthcare for its strong demand trends and effective cost control measures, while acknowledging the absence of certain one-time benefits made growth objectives seem more challenging.

KeyBanc Capital Markets reiterated an Overweight rating on HCA with a $370 price target, commending the company's fourth-quarter performance marked by robust volume growth. Additionally, HCA Healthcare recently received a $4 million investment from its partner Ondine, extending the company's cash runway to Q4 2025 according to RBC analysts. These developments suggest a dynamic and evolving landscape for HCA Healthcare.

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