Powell’s speech, Nvidia’s chips, Meta deal - what’s moving markets
EUR/USD is trading at 1.1586, after an intraday high of 1.1617 and a low of 1.1583. The pair is sitting just below its short-term moving averages, with the 15-day moving average at 1.1641 and the 20-day moving average at 1.1608—showing early signs of bearish pressure creeping in.
Key Technical Observations
- Moving Averages Bearish Tilt: Price is consolidating slightly under both moving averages. A sustained break below could reinforce downside bias.
- Range-Bound With Tilt Lower: EUR/USD has been capped near 1.1800 resistance, with support around 1.1500 forming the key lower boundary.
- RSI at 45.54: Momentum is leaning bearish, though not yet oversold—suggesting potential for further downside.
- Loss of Momentum: Recent candles show smaller ranges and weaker bullish follow-through, reflecting fading upward momentum.
Macro (BCBA:BMAm) & Market Context
- ECB vs. Fed Divergence: Markets remain sensitive to ECB dovishness versus Fed’s hawkish tone. This divergence continues to weigh on EUR/USD upside.
- U.S. Economic Data: Stronger U.S. prints could push the pair toward the 1.1500 region, while weaker numbers may allow recovery above 1.1700.
- Risk Sentiment: Risk-off flows tend to support the USD; current market jitters could limit euro strength.
Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate Resistance: 1.1700 (short-term recovery zone, near moving average cluster)
- Next (LON:NXT) Resistance: 1.1800 (range top, major rejection level)
- Immediate Support: 1.1500 (key floor holding the downside)
- Breakdown Support: 1.1350 (major psychological level)
Bias: Neutral / Bearish Tilt
The pair is consolidating below moving averages with RSI slipping under 50. Unless the pair reclaims 1.1640–1.1700, risks lean toward a test of 1.1500.
Patience may be key here. Traders should watch for a confirmed push above 1.1640–1.1700 to revive bullish momentum. Alternatively, a drop below 1.1500 would signal a bearish breakdown. Chasing price in the current indecisive zone risks being caught in false moves.
