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On Friday, HSBC analysts adjusted their stance on Allianz (ETR:ALVG) SE (ALV:GR) (OTC:AZSEY), downgrading the stock from ’Buy’ to ’Hold’, accompanied by a slight decrease in the price target from EUR372.00 to EUR370.00. The revision comes as Allianz shares are currently trading at a valuation that is approximately 15% and 30% above its 1-year and 3-year averages, respectively. This valuation also represents a 3% premium compared to the sector, contrasting with a historical 4% discount.
The HSBC analyst noted the company’s trading at 12.3 times the projected 2026 earnings per share (EPS), which is at the higher end of the management’s guidance range according to Visible Alpha earnings consensus. Despite the downgrade, HSBC’s analysis of Allianz remains positive in terms of the company’s business model, which is supported by a strong balance sheet, diversification across business lines and geographies, and a focus on organic growth, productivity improvements, and enhanced economic value creation as part of its 2024-2027 business plan.
Projected financial growth for Allianz was also highlighted, with estimates indicating compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) from 2024 to 2027 of 8% for tangible net asset value per share (TNAV p/s), 5% for common equity per share (CE p/s), 7% for EPS, and 7% for dividends per share (DPS). In terms of shareholder returns, HSBC estimates normal and total dividend yields for 2025 at 4.5% and 5.7%, respectively.
The analyst’s positive view of Allianz’s fundamentals reflects confidence in the insurer’s strategic initiatives and potential for steady financial performance. The slight adjustment in the price target reflects a more cautious outlook on the stock’s valuation relative to the broader market and sector averages.
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