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On Tuesday, HSBC analysts revised their stance on CreditAccess Grameen Ltd (CREDAG:IN), downgrading the stock from Buy to Hold and reducing the price target from INR1,070.00 to INR810.00. The adjustment reflects concerns over the potential compression of valuations for the microfinance institution.
HSBC's analysis indicates that CreditAccess Grameen, a leading entity in the microfinance sector, has historically enjoyed a significant premium in its trading compared to its peers. However, with peers trading between 0.5 to 0.9 times their 12-month forward Price-to-Book (PB) value, CreditAccess Grameen's current trading at approximately 2 to 3 times peer valuations is notably higher.
The firm further notes that their earnings estimates for CreditAccess Grameen for the fiscal years ending 2026 and 2027 are approximately 25% and 13% lower than the consensus, respectively. This discrepancy suggests that there could be more pronounced reductions in earnings predictions industry-wide.
HSBC's revised price target takes into account a lowered target multiple, moving from 2 times to 1.6 times. This new valuation implies a potential downside of around 12% from the current levels, as per HSBC's analysis. The downgrade and price target revision are based on the expectation that it will be challenging for CreditAccess Grameen to maintain its current valuation multiples in the face of anticipated earnings cuts.
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