How are energy investors positioned?
On Thursday, Investec (LON:INVP) analyst Anuj Upadhyay adjusted the price target for NHPC Ltd (NSE:NHPC:IN) to INR 109.00 from the previous INR 124.00, while still recommending the stock as a Buy. The revision follows NHPC’s fiscal fourth-quarter report, which showed a year-over-year increase in generation by 11.3% to 3.3 billion units, attributed to a higher Plant Availability Factor (PAF) of 58.6% compared to 54.6% in the same period last year.
The increased generation, coupled with a 4.6% year-over-year rise in realization to INR 8.5 per unit, led to a 15.7% increase in consolidated revenue. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) also grew by 6.7% compared to the previous year. However, profit before tax (PBT), after adjusting for one-off items, showed a decline of 5.1% year-over-year, while profit after tax (PAT) surged by 32%, benefiting from a high year-over-year tax base.
NHPC’s recent commissioning of the Parbati IV 800MW project in April 2025 and the expected addition of three units of the Subansiri projects in the fiscal year 2026, with full commissioning by fiscal year 2027, are significant developments. These projects, along with Kiru (624MW) and Pakal Dul (1GW), are projected to increase the company’s regulated equity to INR 268 billion by fiscal year 2027, up from INR 141 billion in fiscal year 2025.
Despite these positive developments, Investec has reduced its PAT estimates for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 10% each. This adjustment reflects anticipated delays in the commissioning of the Teesta VI (500 MW), Kwar (540 MW), and Ratle (850 MW) projects, now expected in fiscal year 2028 instead of the earlier projection of fiscal year 2027. Consequently, the price target has been revised to INR 109, as detailed in Upadhyay’s commentary.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.