James Hardie stock price target cut by BofA on weaker outlook

Published 20/08/2025, 15:36
James Hardie stock price target cut by BofA on weaker outlook

Investing.com - BofA Securities lowered its price target on James Hardie Industries (NYSE:JHX) to $23.70 from $32.80 on Wednesday, while maintaining a Buy rating on the building materials company. The company, with a market capitalization of $11.8 billion, maintains strong financial health according to InvestingPro data, with a healthy current ratio of 2.1 indicating solid liquidity.

The price target reduction follows James Hardie’s first-quarter results and guidance, which prompted BofA to make significant cuts to its estimates, including a 20% reduction in FY26 EBITDA forecast to $1,163 million from the previous $1,458 million.

BofA now projects FY26 North America revenue and volumes to decline by 12% and 14% year-over-year respectively, compared to its previous forecast of 2% growth and flat volumes, citing lower end-market demand and increased competitive pressures.

The firm also reduced its FY26 North America EBIT margin forecast to 24.8% to reflect first-quarter carryover and lower volumes, while cutting its FY26 AZEK EBITDA contribution estimate to $257 million from $310 million.

Despite the significant price target reduction, BofA maintained its Buy rating on James Hardie, noting that the risk-reward remains favorable following Wednesday’s 30% sell-off, with the stock trading at the lower end of its historical range and expectations for earnings recovery in FY27 and beyond. InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock is currently undervalued, trading near its 52-week low with a P/E ratio of 20.84. Get access to 8 additional exclusive ProTips and comprehensive valuation metrics with an InvestingPro subscription.

In other recent news, James Hardie Industries reported its first-quarter earnings for fiscal year 2026, which fell short of market expectations. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) was $0.29, missing the anticipated $0.35, resulting in a negative surprise of 17.14%. Revenue was reported at $899.9 million, which was below the forecasted $950.68 million, marking a 5.34% shortfall. Following these results, analyst firms have adjusted their outlooks on the company. Truist Securities lowered its price target for James Hardie to $25.00 from $35.00, maintaining a Buy rating, citing weak demand in North America. Similarly, Jefferies reduced its price target to $30.00 from $34.00, also maintaining a Buy rating, due to the softer-than-expected first-quarter results and a weaker full-year guidance. These developments reflect the challenges James Hardie is facing in meeting market forecasts.

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