Jefferies cuts Casella Waste stock rating, lowers price target

Published 23/01/2025, 11:54
Jefferies cuts Casella Waste stock rating, lowers price target

On Thursday, Jefferies analyst Stephanie Moore downgraded Casella Waste (NASDAQ:CWST) Systems stock from Buy to Hold, adjusting the price target to $113.00 from a previous $115.00. The firm's assessment suggests that while Casella Waste Systems is expected to achieve a 15% growth in adjusted EBITDA, reaching an estimated $418 million from the current $322 million, the margin expansion is anticipated to be minimal at 10 basis points. The projected free cash flow (FCF) growth of 13% falls short of the company's pre-COVID five-year growth rate of 15%, despite the company's impressive 26.5% revenue growth in the last twelve months.

Moore's analysis indicates that Casella Waste Systems' shares are currently trading at approximately 45 times the projected FCF for the fiscal year two years ahead. This valuation represents a 12-turn premium compared to the company's two-year average. Jefferies believes that this premium is not warranted when considering the company's financial outlook. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears overvalued at current levels, with multiple valuation metrics showing premium pricing, including a P/E ratio over 900x and an EV/EBITDA of 23.2x. Subscribers to InvestingPro can access 14 additional key insights about Casella's valuation and financial health.

The valuation premium Casella Waste Systems has enjoyed relative to its peer group is partly attributed to the company's historical perception as a potential acquisition target. Casella Waste Systems holds a dominant position in the Northeast, owning about 20% of the market. However, the recent wave of acquisitions led by the company's management has significantly increased EBITDA from $198 million in 2021 to an estimated $418 million in 2025. This growth in EBITDA could potentially make a future takeover more challenging, especially given the company's valuation is above that of other public waste players. For a comprehensive analysis of Casella's acquisition strategy and its impact on valuations, investors can access the detailed Pro Research Report available exclusively on InvestingPro, covering over 1,400 US stocks with expert insights and actionable intelligence.

In other recent news, Casella Waste Systems reported a significant revenue growth of 16.7% year-over-year to $411.6 million in its third-quarter earnings for 2024, largely attributed to acquisitions and organic growth. The company also registered a 14.9% growth in adjusted EBITDA, reaching $102.9 million. However, challenges such as lower landfill volumes and increased expenses led to a decrease in adjusted net income to $15.9 million.

In addition, Casella completed the acquisition of Royal, contributing to the company's growth expectations. Despite a decline in landfill volumes, the average price per ton increased by 7.1%, and solid waste revenue grew by 17.3% due to price hikes. The company also managed to raise over $500 million in financing for future mergers and acquisitions activities.

Casella Waste Systems, Inc. secured $45 million in revenue bonds for projects in Maine, issued by the Finance Authority of Maine. The bonds carry a 4.625% annual interest rate through June 1, 2035, and are set to mature on December 1, 2047. In another development, Casella announced the planned closure of the Ontario County landfill in New York by the end of 2028, aligning with the company's existing operating plan. The waste currently managed at the Ontario site will be reallocated to other landfills operated by Casella in New York and Pennsylvania. These are some of the recent developments concerning Casella Waste Systems.

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