Jefferies cuts Forward Air price target to $35, maintains buy

Published 08/05/2025, 16:04
Jefferies cuts Forward Air price target to $35, maintains buy

On Thursday, Jefferies analyst Stephanie Moore revised the price target on Forward Air (NASDAQ:FWRD) shares, reducing it to $35 from the previous $45, while retaining a Buy rating on the company. According to InvestingPro data, the stock currently trades at $18.27, significantly below its 52-week high of $40.92, with analyst targets ranging from $22 to $45. The adjustment follows Forward Air’s first-quarter EBITDA of $69 million, which surpassed prior expectations due to prompt pricing adjustments and cost reductions in the Expedite Freight segment, resulting in a 380 basis points sequential margin improvement. InvestingPro analysis reveals concerning fundamentals, including a significant debt burden with a debt-to-equity ratio of 10.64x and negative free cash flow yield, suggesting challenges ahead.

Despite the positive outcome, Jefferies has revised its EBITDA forecasts for the years 2025 and 2026 to $300 million and $350 million, respectively, citing trade and macroeconomic uncertainties that are anticipated to impact volumes. The company’s last twelve months EBITDA stands at $187.53 million, while InvestingPro analysts have identified multiple challenges, including rapid cash burn and potential difficulties in making interest payments. Get access to 10+ additional crucial ProTips with an InvestingPro subscription. Moore stated that although the company’s turnaround efforts are advancing, the challenges of large-scale turnarounds, which often involve multiple fluctuations, suggest that a private approach may be more favorable.

The analyst emphasized the need for patience, as structural and meaningful enhancements in earnings power can take time and may face numerous obstacles. The recommendation to handle the situation privately stems from the belief that it would shield the company from the pressures of the public market, which often focuses on meeting quarterly estimates and specific performance indicators.

The strategic review process was brought to the forefront in January when Forward Air’s Board announced it was actively exploring strategic alternatives, including a potential sale. With increasing shareholder pressure, Moore suggests that a private takeover would currently be the most advantageous route for the company’s investors. The company’s financial health score is rated as ’WEAK’ by InvestingPro, with a market capitalization of $554.24 million and a concerning Altman Z-Score of 1.91, indicating potential financial distress.

In other recent news, Forward Air Corporation reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, which revealed a notable shortfall in both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue compared to analyst projections. The company’s EPS was recorded at -$1.68, missing the anticipated -$0.44, while revenue stood at $613 million, falling short of the expected $651.3 million. Despite a 13.2% year-over-year increase in revenue, the performance did not meet market expectations, leading to investor concerns. Forward Air aims to double its revenue to $5 billion over five years, focusing on organic growth and strategic execution. Meanwhile, the company has been taking corrective pricing actions in its Expedited Freight segment to enhance profitability. Analysts from firms such as Stifel and Jefferies have been closely monitoring these developments, with some noting the potential for improved performance in future quarters. Forward Air’s liquidity increased by $11 million, reaching $393 million, which includes $116 million in cash. The company remains focused on optimizing its network and expanding its service offerings to achieve its ambitious growth targets.

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