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On Monday, Jefferies analyst Edison Lee adjusted the firm’s stance on GDS Holdings (NASDAQ:GDS), downgrading the stock rating from "Buy" to "Hold" and setting a new price target of $45.00, up from the previous $27.06. The revision comes amid anticipations of a surge in artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditures (capex) in China, which is projected to stimulate increased demand for internet data centers (IDCs). The stock has shown remarkable momentum, with a 537% return over the past year and an 88% gain year-to-date. According to InvestingPro analysis, GDS is currently trading above its Fair Value, with 14 additional ProTips available for subscribers.
Lee’s analysis suggests that China is on the brink of a significant increase in AI infrastructure investment, with expectations that the country’s cloud service providers (CSP) capex to revenue ratio will jump from less than 10% to over 15%, aligning with their U.S. counterparts. The forecast for China’s annual AI infrastructure capex is estimated to exceed Rmb700 billion (approximately $100 billion). As a prominent player in the IT Services industry, GDS has demonstrated strong revenue growth of 12% in the last twelve months, generating $1.56 billion in revenue.
In response to these market dynamics, Jefferies has raised its forecasts for both underutilized tax receivables (UTR) and new capacity at GDS Holdings in China. The firm has also transitioned its valuation of GDS from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model to a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation. This new SOTP valuation applies a multiple of 15 times the estimated 2025 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and 30 times the estimated 2026 EBITDA for GDS’s China and international operations, respectively.
The analyst’s comments further clarify the rationale behind the rating adjustment, stating that the capex guidance provided by Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), a major player in China’s tech industry, indicates a robust upcycle for AI capex. This trend is expected to drive a significant rise in demand for IDC services, benefiting companies like GDS Holdings.
Despite the upbeat outlook on industry growth and GDS’s prospects, the new price target reflects a more cautious view on the stock’s potential performance in the near term. Lee notes that the current valuation presents a more balanced risk-reward scenario for investors considering the company’s future growth trajectory and market conditions. InvestingPro data reveals the company trades at a high EBIT multiple with a gross profit margin of 21%, while maintaining a solid current ratio of 1.19. Get access to the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available for GDS and 1,400+ other top stocks, offering deep-dive analysis and actionable insights for informed investment decisions.
In other recent news, GDS Holdings has seen several significant developments. Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James raised its price target for the company to $53, maintaining an Outperform rating, due to expectations of growth from its investment in DayOne. Similarly, TD Cowen increased its price target to $39, citing GDS Holdings’ third-quarter earnings and potential for surpassing Wall Street expectations in the fourth quarter. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) also maintained an Overweight rating with a $39 target, highlighting the importance of Alibaba’s upcoming earnings report for GDS Holdings’ growth prospects.
Additionally, Morgan Stanley reiterated a $30 price target, considering recent U.S. policy shifts on artificial intelligence, which could benefit GDS Holdings’ subsidiary, DayOne. These policy changes may facilitate the import of high-end GPUs, which are crucial for GDS Holdings’ operations in the ASEAN region. Meanwhile, Gauzy Ltd. announced a strategic partnership with MABA Industrial to introduce its Smart-Vision® system in South Korea, aiming to expand its presence in the Asia-Pacific region. This partnership aligns with South Korea’s focus on AI-powered solutions and road safety initiatives. These developments reflect a period of strategic growth and adaptation for both GDS Holdings and Gauzy Ltd.
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