Jefferies cuts Post Holdings price target to $128, keeps Buy rating

Published 22/01/2025, 17:20
Jefferies cuts Post Holdings price target to $128, keeps Buy rating

On Wednesday, Jefferies analyst Rob Dickerson revised the price target for Post Holdings (NYSE:POST) stock, reducing it to $128 from $135 while maintaining a Buy rating on the shares. Dickerson noted that recent data indicates increased demand pressure in several of Post Holdings' key markets during the first fiscal quarter, particularly in pet care, cereal, and refrigerated retail segments. Despite this, year-over-year pricing showed a positive inflection. According to InvestingPro data, the company has maintained strong revenue growth of 13.3% over the last twelve months, with management actively buying back shares to support shareholder value.

The analyst also pointed out that while traffic for away-from-home consumption remained subdued through the holiday season, Post Holdings could see benefits from its value-added products that help reduce labor needs. Additionally, the company might gain from potential incremental pricing due to egg price inflation caused by avian influenza.

Dickerson highlighted Post Holdings' financial attractiveness, citing a free cash flow yield of approximately 10% and an enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of around 8.5 times. Current InvestingPro data shows an EV/EBITDA of 9.74x, while maintaining a strong current ratio of 2.36, indicating healthy liquidity. The company's overall Financial Health Score is rated as GOOD, with particularly strong metrics in growth and profitability. Analysis from InvestingPro suggests the stock is currently trading below its Fair Value, supporting Dickerson's assessment.

Post Holdings, a consumer packaged goods holding company, has a diverse portfolio that includes participation in the foodservice, food ingredient, refrigerated, active nutrition, and private brand food categories. The company's strategy involves leveraging its robust free cash flow to invest in areas with the potential for high returns. For deeper insights into POST's valuation and growth prospects, investors can access comprehensive analysis and additional ProTips through InvestingPro's detailed research reports, which cover over 1,400 US stocks.

Investors and market watchers will likely continue to monitor Post Holdings' performance closely, especially considering the analyst's reaffirmed Buy rating despite the lowered price target.

In other recent news, Post Holdings has been the subject of several significant developments. The company's F1Q25 sales growth estimates have been revised by Piper Sandler, leading to a reduction in the stock price target from $140.00 to $120.00, although the Overweight rating was maintained. This adjustment is attributed to slower retail momentum and anticipated EBITDA margin pressure on the Weetabix brand due to an ERP transition.

Moreover, Post Holdings has confirmed its intention to acquire Potato Products of Idaho, a move that expands its portfolio in the consumer packaged goods sector, particularly in the refrigerated and frozen potato product categories. This acquisition is expected to close in F2Q25.

The company also reported a case of avian influenza at one of its third-party contracted egg-laying facilities. However, Post Holdings anticipates that the impact will remain within the guidance range provided.

Evercore ISI has upgraded the price target for Post Holdings to $126.00 while maintaining an Outperform rating. The analyst noted a 3% year-over-year growth in the FY25 EBITDA estimate, which now stands at $1.447 billion. Post Holdings has also confirmed its fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA forecast, ranging from $1,410 million to $1,460 million. These are recent developments that have shaped the company's trajectory.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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