Jefferies cuts UnitedHealth target to $530, maintains Buy

Published 21/04/2025, 16:52
Jefferies cuts UnitedHealth target to $530, maintains Buy

On Monday, Jefferies analyst David Windley revised the price target for UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) stock, reducing it to $530 from the previous $609, while still recommending the stock as a Buy. The adjustment follows the recognition of operational setbacks within the company’s Medicare Advantage (MA) segment. The stock has experienced a significant 22.65% decline over the past week, now trading near its 52-week low. According to InvestingPro analysis, UNH appears undervalued at current levels, with 13 additional exclusive insights available to subscribers.

Windley pointed out that while the MA sector was expected to benefit from regulatory and rate improvements for 2026, UnitedHealth Group encountered unexpected operational issues in 2025. These challenges, including coding, pricing, and clinical engagement, had a negative impact on the company’s earnings per share (EPS) for the year. Despite these setbacks, the analyst believes that the problems UnitedHealth Group faced are solvable. The company maintains strong fundamentals with an EBITDA of $36.24 billion and has demonstrated consistent dividend growth, having maintained payments for 33 consecutive years. Discover more detailed financial metrics and exclusive insights with a InvestingPro subscription.

The analyst’s note expressed confidence in UnitedHealth Group’s ability to address the issues, stating that the company is typically expected to have the sophistication to foresee and adapt to such changes. Windley described UnitedHealth as a "semi-repricing story" with a clear rate outlook, which historically tends to lead to positive results in the market.

Looking ahead, Jefferies projects a $30 EPS for UnitedHealth Group in 2026. Based on a 15 times earnings multiple, Windley suggests that $450 could be seen as a conservative baseline for the stock’s value, with potential for gains if the company improves its utilization rates. The Buy rating was reiterated, signaling continued analyst confidence in the stock’s prospects.

In other recent news, UnitedHealth Group reported a disappointing first quarter for 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $7.20, falling short of the expected $7.29, and revenue of $109.6 billion, below the forecast of $111.5 billion. The company has revised its full-year 2025 EPS guidance to a range of $26.00 to $26.50, down from the previous estimate of $29.50 to $30.00. Analysts from Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James, Oppenheimer, Truist Securities, and KeyBanc Capital Markets have adjusted their price targets for UnitedHealth, with reductions ranging from $540 to $600, though they maintain positive ratings such as "Strong Buy" and "Outperform." These revisions reflect concerns over issues in the Medicare Advantage segment and higher care activity costs. The company is focused on addressing these challenges, particularly in its Optum Health division, by enhancing coding practices and operational efficiency. Despite the setbacks, UnitedHealth remains committed to long-term growth and operational excellence, with analysts expressing confidence in the company’s ability to navigate current hurdles.

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