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On Friday, Jefferies analyst Thomas Chong adjusted the price target for ZTO Express (NYSE: NYSE:ZTO) shares, bringing it down from $27.00 to $24.00. Despite this change, the firm continues to recommend a Buy rating for the stock. Currently trading at a P/E ratio of 14.7x, InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is undervalued, with additional upside potential. The move came after ZTO Express reported its fourth-quarter earnings, which revealed revenues exceeding expectations, while non-GAAP earnings were in line with consensus but did not meet Jefferies’ forecasts.
During the earnings call, ZTO management underscored their anticipation of parcel volume growth between 20-24% year-over-year (YoY) and projected the industry growth rate at 15% YoY for the current year. The company’s strong financial position is evident in its "GREAT" InvestingPro Financial Health score of 3.21, supported by revenue growth of 15.26% in the last twelve months. These projections have led Jefferies to modify their average selling price (ASP) assumptions for ZTO, taking into account the dynamic industry environment.
The firm’s analysts believe that gaining market share is a priority for ZTO Express. Their assessment maintains the existing cost per parcel assumptions, which have not been significantly altered in light of the recent earnings report. Additionally, Jefferies highlighted the rapid expansion trends in reverse logistics, a sector in which ZTO is currently active.
ZTO’s performance and strategic focus areas were detailed in the statement from Jefferies, where the analyst remarked, "We adjust our ASP on dynamic industry environment and market share gain is a focus area for ZTO. We maintain our cost per parcel assumptions largely unchanged. Reverse logistics is seeing fast growth trends. Maintain Buy."
Investors and market watchers will likely monitor ZTO Express’s stock performance following this recent price target update and the company’s strategic initiatives to increase market share and capitalize on growth in reverse logistics. With a market capitalization of $16.08 billion and strong profitability metrics, InvestingPro subscribers can access over 10 additional key insights and detailed financial metrics to make more informed investment decisions.
In other recent news, ZTO Express reported fourth-quarter revenue of RMB12.92 billion ($1.77 billion), surpassing analyst estimates of RMB11.71 billion and marking a 21.7% increase compared to the previous year. Despite this revenue success, adjusted earnings per American depositary share fell slightly short of expectations at RMB3.24 ($0.44). For the full year 2024, ZTO Express’s revenue reached RMB44.28 billion ($6.07 billion), with adjusted net income growing 12.7% to RMB10.15 billion ($1.39 billion). The company has also declared a semi-annual dividend of $0.35 per ADS.
In terms of analyst activity, JPMorgan downgraded ZTO Express’s stock rating from Overweight to Neutral, adjusting the price target to $23 from $25. Concerns were raised about the company’s strategic focus on volume growth potentially leading to margin dilution. On the other hand, Citi raised its price target for ZTO Express to $26.40, maintaining a Buy rating, citing the company’s commitment to parcel growth and market share expansion. ZTO Express’s performance in the retail parcel segment and efficiency improvements were also highlighted. The company has a remaining share buyback quota of $700 million, with potential plans to extend the program.
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