Jefferies downgrades Evolution Mining stock on Red Lake reserve concerns

Published 18/06/2025, 11:18
Jefferies downgrades Evolution Mining stock on Red Lake reserve concerns

Jefferies downgraded Evolution Mining Ltd. (ASX:EVN) from Hold to Underperform Wednesday, while lowering its price target to AUD6.75 from AUD7.00. According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains strong financial health with a ’GREAT’ overall score of 3.36/5.

The downgrade follows a significant decline in reserve grade at Evolution’s Red Lake operation, with recent MROR estimates showing approximately 35% lower grades. Jefferies has subsequently reduced its Red Lake production forecasts by about 10%.

Evolution Mining has experienced strong share price appreciation, supported by improved operating metrics and robust gold price performance. These factors have enabled the company to rapidly reduce its debt levels.

The stock is currently trading at 1.1 times net present value (NPV) at spot commodity prices, according to Jefferies’ analysis. This valuation metric was cited as a key reason for the downgrade.

Evolution Mining operates primarily in Australia with additional assets in Canada, including the Red Lake complex in Ontario. The company trades on the Australian Securities Exchange under EVN and is available to U.S. investors through its over-the-counter listing (OTC:CAHPF).

In other recent news, Evolution Mining Ltd . reported third-quarter production results for the fiscal year 2025, surpassing expectations with gold and copper production of approximately 180,000 ounces and 19,500 tonnes, respectively. These figures exceeded both BMO Capital Markets’ and consensus estimates, leading BMO to raise its price target for the company to AUD8.00 while maintaining a Market Perform rating. Additionally, Evolution Mining announced the approval of the Cowal Open Pit Continuation Project, which is expected to bolster future production.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan upgraded Evolution Mining’s stock rating from Underweight to Overweight, increasing the price target to AUD8.50. This upgrade was driven by a revised long-term pricing approach for gold, with adjustments reflecting a mean reversion from forward curves back to the spot price. JPMorgan has also adjusted its commodity price forecasts, marking both gold and silver prices to move up around 5%.

Conversely, UBS downgraded Evolution Mining from neutral to sell, citing valuation concerns and reducing the price target to AUD6.70. This decision followed a review of the company’s Reserve and Resource statement, leading UBS to temper its production outlook and increase capital expenditure estimates. Despite these concerns, UBS acknowledged the company’s strong operational performance and positive long-term view on copper. These developments highlight the varied perspectives among analysts regarding Evolution Mining’s financial and operational outlook.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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