Jefferies lifts Amcor stock rating to buy, raises target to $20.50

Published 03/02/2025, 22:28
Jefferies lifts Amcor stock rating to buy, raises target to $20.50

On Monday, Jefferies upgraded Amcor Limited (ASX:AMC:AU) (NYSE: AMCR) stock from Hold to Buy, setting a new price target of AUD20.50, up from the previous AUD15.70. The upgrade follows the company’s recent BERY transaction, which Jefferies analyst Ramoun Lazar believes is poised to significantly benefit Amcor (NYSE:AMCR). According to InvestingPro data, Amcor has demonstrated strong financial stability with a GOOD overall health score and maintains a significant 5.25% dividend yield, having raised its dividends for six consecutive years.

Lazar’s endorsement of the BERY deal highlights its timely execution, the expected synergies, and the reasonable price paid, all of which are seen as catalysts for a re-rating of Amcor’s shares. According to Lazar, this acquisition should usher in a phase of robust earnings growth for Amcor. The company’s current profitability metrics support this outlook, with a return on equity of 20% and EBITDA of $1.9 billion in the last twelve months.

The analyst also pointed to the potential medium-term benefits of the BERY acquisition. Lazar suggested that BERY could provide Amcor with innovative tools to accelerate volume growth, an area that has seen underperformance since Amcor’s Bemis acquisition. The current forecasted price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for fiscal year 2026 of 12.5 times, or 11.5 times including BERY, is not reflective of this potential growth. This assessment aligns with InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis, which indicates the stock is currently undervalued. For deeper insights into Amcor’s valuation and growth prospects, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively to InvestingPro subscribers.

Amcor’s acquisition of BERY is seen as a strategic move that could rectify past disappointments in volume growth. Lazar’s commentary underscores the belief that the market has not yet fully appreciated the value that BERY will bring to Amcor’s operations and financial performance.

With the upgrade to Buy, Jefferies has signaled confidence in Amcor’s ability to capitalize on the synergies from the BERY transaction and deliver on its growth objectives. This positive outlook is now reflected in the higher price target set by the firm.

In other recent news, Amcor has reported significant developments, including a change in its executive leadership. Eric Roegner, former President of Amcor Rigid Packaging (NYSE:PKG), has moved into the role of Executive Vice President, Integration and Special Projects. Analysts from Citi and BofA Securities have upgraded Amcor’s shares from Neutral and Underperform to Buy, respectively, citing the company’s undervaluation and the upcoming merger with Berry. The merger is projected to generate around $650 million in synergies, according to BofA Securities.

Amcor’s financial performance for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 demonstrated a 2% increase in overall volumes and a 5% year-over-year growth in adjusted earnings per share. Despite challenges in the healthcare sector and North American beverage demand, Amcor maintains its full-year guidance, projecting an adjusted earnings per share between $0.72 and $0.76, and a strong adjusted free cash flow of $900 million to $1 billion.

In governance news, Amcor’s Annual General Meeting resulted in the election of ten directors for a one-year term each and the ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers AG as the company’s independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year 2025. The company also received approval from shareholders on a non-binding advisory vote on the company’s executive compensation. Lastly, Amcor reported the sale of its 50% interest in Bericap North America for $122 million, a strategic move aimed at reducing debt.

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