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On Wednesday, Georgia-Pacific, the fourth-largest North American producer of containerboard, announced the permanent closure of its Cedar Springs, Georgia mill, set to take place on August 1, 2025. The mill’s shutdown is expected to reduce the industry’s containerboard capacity by approximately 1 million tons, or 2.4% of the U.S. total. This move comes as part of a broader industry trend that will see a combined reduction of 2.25 million tons in supply, equivalent to 5.4% starting in the second quarter of 2025.
The Cedar Springs facility, which has been operating for over two decades, is the largest of the four announced mill closures this year. It produces 227,000 tons of medium and 773,000 tons of linerboard. This closure, along with those by International Paper (IP), Greif (NYSE:GEF), and WestRock (NYSE:WRK) (SW), is anticipated to help balance supply with the current weak but stable demand amidst a volatile global trade environment. International Paper, with its substantial market presence of $26.67B market capitalization and annual revenue of $19.9B, stands as a key player in this industry transformation. InvestingPro analysis indicates the company appears overvalued at current levels.
Analysts at Jefferies view this development as a positive step towards stabilizing the market, as it is expected to increase operating rates to the mid-90s percentile, up from 91.2% in the first quarter of 2025. These closures are also seen as a counter to the destocking impact observed in the latter half of the first quarter. With long-term box shipments currently 9.6% below the peak in August 2021 and 3.7% below 2019 levels, the industry is adjusting to the reduced demand. Despite market challenges, International Paper has maintained its strong dividend track record, having paid dividends for 55 consecutive years, with a current yield of 3.85%. The stock has shown resilience with a notable 9.04% return over the past week. For detailed analysis and more insights, check out the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.
Despite concerns about a potential recession impacting volumes, with a moderate recession expected to result in a 5% decrease in volumes, the market has already seen a 2.1% decline in the first quarter of 2025. Jefferies believes that the likelihood of RISI cutting containerboard prices this Friday is very low, given the recent mill closure announcements and the halt in substantial tariffs on China earlier in the week.
The market is expected to maintain containerboard prices, with large producers likely to implement the box price increase tied to February’s containerboard price realization of $40 per ton throughout the second and third quarters. While additional closures from International Paper could occur in the second half of 2025, the current news suggests a shift in the industry’s strategy, leading to a more balanced market by the end of the year. InvestingPro data reveals that 8 analysts have recently revised their earnings expectations downward for the upcoming period, though the company is still expected to remain profitable this year. Subscribers can access over 10 additional ProTips and detailed financial metrics for deeper analysis of International Paper’s outlook.
In other recent news, International Paper has announced quarterly dividends for its common and preferred stock, with shareholders set to receive $0.4625 and $1.00 per share, respectively. This decision underscores the company’s commitment to returning value to investors and reflects its financial stability. Additionally, International Paper has amended its pension plan to accommodate a business divestiture, ensuring certain executives, including Clayton R. Ellis, continue accruing pension benefits. The company’s shareholders also approved all board directors and ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor for 2025.
In related industry developments, Georgia-Pacific plans to shut down its Cedar Springs mill, reducing North American containerboard capacity by approximately 2.5%. Analysts from Citi and Truist view this closure as a positive move for supply and demand dynamics in the containerboard market, potentially supporting pricing. Bank of America analysts have noted that such closures are happening faster than expected, signaling a dip in demand for 2025. This trend has affected companies like International Paper, Packaging (NYSE:PKG) Corporation of America, and Smurfit Westrock, all of which are navigating these industry shifts.
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