JMP maintains $9 target on Savara stock, sees FDA nod

On Thursday, JMP Securities analyst reaffirmed a positive outlook on Savara Inc. (NASDAQ:SVRA), maintaining a Market Outperform rating and a price target of $9.00. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for SVRA range from $5.00 to $16.00, with the stock currently trading at $2.70, suggesting significant upside potential. The analyst’s confidence is rooted in the recent completion of Savara’s Biologics License Application (BLA) for its drug molgramostim, aimed at treating autoimmune pulmonary alveolar proteinosis (aPAP). The company has requested a Priority Review from the FDA, which, if granted, could expedite the approval process. With an overall Financial Health score of ’FAIR’ from InvestingPro, the company shows particular strength in price momentum metrics.

Savara’s management has high expectations for molgramostim’s approval, with a projected probability of success at 90%. The optimism is also based on the identification of a larger patient population than previously estimated. Savara has identified approximately 3,600 diagnosed U.S. patients through an analysis of ICD9/10 diagnosis claims, surpassing earlier literature estimates. Additionally, the company believes there are about 3,700 more patients likely to have aPAP.

The recent launch of Savara’s aPAP ClearPath Dried Blood Spot (DBS) test in the U.S. is anticipated to improve access to testing and facilitate diagnosis. As of January, the company has identified around 450 diagnosed patients and aims to increase this number to 1,000 by the expected drug launch in early 2026. Initial annual sales are estimated to be between $300 million and $500 million. InvestingPro analysis reveals the company maintains a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 17.7x and more cash than debt on its balance sheet, providing financial flexibility for the commercial launch. Discover more detailed insights and 6 additional ProTips with an InvestingPro subscription.

JMP Securities’ analysis suggests that peak U.S. sales of Molbreevi, the brand name for molgramostim, could reach approximately $750 million. This projection is considered conservative and takes into account potential variables such as pricing, the prevalent population, the adoption curve, peak penetration, and the longevity of revenue. The company’s market capitalization currently stands at $565.5 million, with a beta of 0.59, indicating lower volatility compared to the broader market.

In other recent news, Savara Inc. has completed its Biologics License Application submission to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for MOLBREEVI, a drug aimed at treating autoimmune pulmonary alveolar proteinosis (aPAP). The company is seeking a Priority Review, which could expedite the FDA’s review process to six months. Savara’s clinical trials for MOLBREEVI have shown significant improvements in lung function and quality of life for patients, with no discontinuations due to drug-related adverse events. In related developments, Savara has also revealed retrospective outcomes data for molgramostim, which suggests therapeutic benefits for aPAP patients, including improved lung function and reduced need for whole lung lavage. The company plans to complete its rolling Biologics License Application in the U.S. by the end of the first quarter of 2025 and file a Marketing Authorization Application in Europe by the end of the same year. Additionally, Savara has set executive bonus targets for 2025, with CEO Matthew Pauls eligible for a bonus of $330,000, contingent upon meeting specific performance goals. The bonus structure is designed to align executive rewards with company performance, as outlined in a recent SEC filing. These developments reflect Savara’s ongoing efforts to advance its treatments for rare respiratory diseases.

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