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On Tuesday, JPMorgan issued a downgrade for Companhia Brasileira de Distribuição (NYSE:CBD) shares, adjusting the rating from Neutral to Underweight. The stock, currently trading at $0.09, has declined 45% over the past year and sits 49% below its 52-week high. The decision comes despite the retailer's improving operating results, which have been bolstered by an assortment revision and more streamlined operations. According to InvestingPro analysis, CBD currently shows signs of being slightly undervalued. JPMorgan anticipates that the company's profitability will continue to improve in 2025, with an expected adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 9.5%.
The firm expressed concerns over Companhia Brasileira's cash generation and leverage, forecasting a leverage ratio of 3.2x in 2025. These concerns appear justified, as InvestingPro data shows the company's Financial Health Score at a modest 2.0 out of 5, with particularly low scores in profitability and growth metrics. The higher interest rates pose additional challenges for the company. Companhia Brasileira has been actively considering a reduction in its store footprint, particularly in the northern and north-eastern regions of Brazil, where its presence lacks synergy with its core operations in São Paulo. The company has discussed the possibility of closing or divesting some of these locations.
Despite these strategic considerations, JPMorgan analysts believe it is too early to determine the effectiveness of these measures. They also noted the absence of significant assets that could be sold to substantially improve the company's leverage. Furthermore, JPMorgan is not convinced that a potential merger with Dia would meaningfully enhance Companhia Brasileira's operations or financial position.
Given these factors, and with the stock currently trading at around 5.5x its estimated 2025 enterprise value to EBITDA, JPMorgan has positioned Companhia Brasileira as Underweight in their investment outlook. The company's current EV/EBITDA ratio of -8.2x and return on assets of -56% underscore the challenges ahead. This rating adjustment reflects the firm's cautious stance on the retailer's financial health in the face of a challenging economic environment. For deeper insights into CBD's valuation metrics and financial health indicators, investors can access comprehensive analysis through InvestingPro.
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