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On Tuesday, JPMorgan analysts downgraded Kikkoman Corp (2801:JP) shares from Overweight to Neutral and reduced the price target to JPY 1,450.00 from the previous JPY 1,700.00. The revision comes amid concerns over the company’s overseas wholesale business, which is a significant contributor to Kikkoman’s profits.
The downgrade reflects JPMorgan’s assessment that about 40% of Kikkoman’s profits, derived from the overseas wholesale segment as of FY2024, could be adversely affected by an economic slowdown. This segment’s performance is closely tied to sales to Japanese restaurants in the food service-use channel.
JPMorgan analysts predict that the competitive landscape for Kikkoman will grow more challenging and that fixed costs will rise due to the inauguration of a new plant in North America. These factors are expected to contribute to a deceleration in sales momentum for Kikkoman.
The forecast for the business profit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through FY2027 has been set at a modest +1%, falling short of the company’s medium-term plan target of +3%. Despite these challenges, JPMorgan anticipates that Kikkoman will maintain a total return ratio above 70%, including annual share buybacks of JPY 20 billion.
However, the analysts also foresee a decline in return on equity (ROE), projecting it to drop to 11% in FY2027 from 12% in FY2024, which is below the company’s guidance of 12% or more. In light of the anticipated slowdown in profit growth, JPMorgan has applied a target price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23 times to Kikkoman’s FY2025 earnings per share estimate, leading to the revised December 2025 price target.
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