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On Wednesday, JPMorgan analyst Alexia Dogani adjusted the price target for Kuehne + Nagel International AG (KNIN:SW) (OTC: KHNGY), reducing it to CHF 180 from CHF 185 while maintaining an Underweight rating on the stock. Dogani noted that the company remains on Negative Catalyst Watch with the upcoming Capital Markets Day (CMD) on March 25, 2023.
The analyst expressed a cautious stance, acknowledging the company’s plan to introduce annual financial guidance at the CMD but still anticipating potential challenges. The forecast for 2025 EBIT remains set at CHF 1.57 billion, representing a 7% year-over-year decline. This figure falls 7% below the co-consensus, driven by concerns about economic growth, tariff risks, and pressures on demand affecting both volumes and rates. Additionally, an oversupply in ocean freight, which could exert further downward pressure once the Red Sea disruption is resolved, is also a factor in the cautious outlook.
Kuehne + Nagel’s management is expected to use the CMD to formally reset expectations and provide a strategic progress review of the original Roadmap 2026 initiatives. They are also anticipated to introduce a 2025 guidance, which Dogani believes will likely be set at a level management is confident in achieving, considering the significant uncertainties present. The expected EBIT guidance is projected to be greater than CHF 1.4 billion.
Despite these anticipations, Kuehne + Nagel’s management has refrained from providing any outlook commentary ahead of the CMD. JPMorgan does not predict substantial changes to the company’s strategy, which includes maintaining a conservative capital structure, nor does it expect the introduction of a new cost improvement plan at this point in time.
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