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JPMorgan downgraded HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC:IN) from Overweight to Neutral on Monday, maintaining a price target of INR5,000.00 amid limited near-term catalysts for the stock.
The downgrade follows a 33% rally in HDFC Asset Management shares over the past three months, significantly outperforming the NIFTY index’s 10% gain during the same period. JPMorgan noted that equity inflows have been slowing year-to-date despite holding up well over recent years due to benign inflation, consistent GDP growth, and supportive monetary policy.
The investment bank forecasts a 16% assets under management (AuM) compound annual growth rate for HDFC Asset Management over the next three years, compared to 20% growth achieved in the previous three-year period. This projection is based on expected nominal GDP growth of 10-11% and near-term stabilization in household asset allocation to equity.
JPMorgan expects HDFC Asset Management to maintain an EBIT/AAUM (earnings before interest and taxes to average assets under management) ratio of 37 basis points over the next three years. The firm anticipates improved cost control with operating expenses to AAUM ratio of 10 basis points in fiscal years 2026 and 2027, compared to 10-12 basis points in fiscal years 2024 and 2025.
Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) flows remain resilient, which JPMorgan views as a medium-term driver for the stock. However, the firm believes these positive factors are already adequately reflected in HDFC Asset Management’s current valuation, which stands at 37 times and 33 times price-to-earnings ratios for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, respectively.
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