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On Tuesday, JPMorgan analysts upgraded CommScope Holding (NASDAQ:COMM) from Underweight to Neutral.
The upgrade reflects a positive outlook on the company's recent strategic debt refinancing efforts and the anticipated growth in its revenue segments.
CommScope has announced a comprehensive debt refinancing plan, which is expected to extend debt maturities, providing the company with the necessary runway to improve fundamentals and visibility into EBITDA growth. This move is anticipated to enable a more favorable equity valuation for CommScope.
The refinancing includes issuing notes due in 2029 and 2031 to repay existing debts that are due in 2025 and 2026. Moreover, CommScope plans to leverage the expected proceeds from the sale of its Home Networks (OWN) and Distributed Antenna Systems (DAS) businesses to Amphenol (NYSE:APH), which is projected to bring in $2.1 billion. This transaction is intended to significantly reduce the company's total debt.
The firm's analysis suggests that CommScope is aiming for a total leverage ratio below 6x, which would correspond to an EBITDA of $1.13 billion in 2026. This target offers a potential valuation range for equity shareholders of $1.1 to $3.3 billion, which is notable when compared to the company's current market capitalization of $1.1 billion.
The analyst established a new price target of $5.00. It's commentary pointed out that while JPMorgan has not yet adjusted its 2026 EBITDA forecast to align with the $1.13 billion target, the improved demand in CommScope's Connectivity Solutions (CCS) segment, particularly with an uptick in fiber demand and a recovery in the Carrier market, as well as in its Access Network Solutions (ANS) and core Network & Cloud (NICS) segments following customer inventory normalization, suggests better visibility into potential equity valuation upside.
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