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On Wednesday, JPMorgan analyst Marcus Diebel increased the price target on shares of CTS (NYSE:CTS) Eventim (EVD:GR) to EUR117.00, up from EUR112.00, while retaining an Overweight rating on the stock. The adjustment follows a positive ad-hoc release from the company, which has provided reassurance to the market after a less favorable third quarter in 2024.
Diebel’s commentary highlighted the continued strong consumer demand and a healthy appetite for events and live entertainment, despite macroeconomic concerns. The analyst also noted that the event pipeline for 2025 looks promising. While expecting CTS Eventim’s management to likely offer a conservative guidance initially, in line with their historically prudent approach, JPMorgan has increased its FY25E revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates by 5% and 3% respectively. These new estimates now stand 6% ahead of the Bloomberg consensus on EBITDA.
The upgrade in the financial outlook is attributed to both organic growth and anticipated benefits from mergers and acquisitions, with JPMorgan projecting about a 5% uplift from M&A activity alone in 2025. Diebel emphasized the importance of enhanced disclosure and stronger corporate communication for the year, which he believes will be crucial for the equity story and a potential re-rating of the company’s valuation.
Furthermore, the analyst suggested that the market could significantly reappraise CTS Eventim’s compelling fundamentals, which include a double-digit EBITDA compound annual growth rate, low capital expenditure, and a negative working capital cycle that is expected to drive superior cash generation. This financial strength could provide room for continued dividend payouts, with JPMorgan’s base case around 50%, and offer further upside potential through mergers and acquisitions.
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