JPMorgan maintains Coherent stock with $86 target, upbeat on growth

Published 29/05/2025, 10:58
JPMorgan maintains Coherent stock with $86 target, upbeat on growth

On Thursday, JPMorgan reiterated its Overweight rating on Coherent (NYSE: NYSE:COHR) with a steadfast price target of $86.00. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for the stock range from $77 to $125, with a strong consensus recommendation of 1.58 (between Strong Buy and Buy). The stock currently trades at $78.25, having shown significant volatility with a 52-week range of $45.58 to $113.60. The firm’s analyst highlighted Coherent’s continued progress along its growth and transformation trajectory, a path that has been apparent for several quarters. Management at Coherent underscored potential revenue growth in the Datacenter & Communications and Industrial sectors, which are expected to support a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%-15% over the next three to four years.

The company has also raised its gross margin target to over 42% from the prior goal of 40%+ and is focused on disciplined operating expense management. These measures are anticipated to yield operating margins exceeding 24% and earnings per share nearing $8, a significant increase from the previous investor target of $5+ and the bull case of $6. Current financial metrics from InvestingPro show a gross profit margin of 34.48% and strong revenue growth of 21.67% over the last twelve months, with total revenue reaching $5.6 billion. The company maintains healthy liquidity with a current ratio of 2.47, indicating strong short-term financial stability.

While investors sought more details on Coherent’s "self-help story" during the Analyst & Investor Day, the company hinted at potential portfolio actions that could hasten their progress toward long-term goals. The management also made a compelling case for the potential of new datacom technologies, particularly the broader content opportunity associated with Coherent Photonic Operations (CPO).

Additionally, Coherent revealed that it has commenced generating Optical Coherent Solutions (OCS) revenue ahead of schedule in the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025 and expressed confidence in the product’s ramp-up with multiple customers in the coming quarters and years. JPMorgan expects the recent Analyst & Investor Day to bolster investor confidence, supporting a valuation of at least 20 times earnings. This valuation, based on the updated earnings power of approximately $8 per share, implies a bull case valuation of at least $160, thus underscoring the stock’s significant upside potential. The firm has reiterated its Overweight stance on the stock.

In other recent news, Coherent has reported significant developments that are drawing attention from investors. The company has outlined ambitious long-term financial targets, projecting double-digit growth in revenue and earnings per share (EPS) reaching $8-9 by fiscal years 2028/29. Coherent anticipates its data center and communications business to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15-20%+, with the industrial segment growing at 5-10%, leading to an overall growth rate of 10-15%+ annually over the next few years. Jefferies has raised its revenue estimates for Coherent for calendar years 2026 and 2027 and increased its EPS estimates, reflecting confidence in the company’s growth trajectory.

Analysts from Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James have lifted Coherent’s stock target to $96, maintaining a Strong Buy rating, while JPMorgan reiterated an Overweight rating with an $86 target, noting the company’s robust growth trajectory. Stifel also maintained a Buy rating with a $100 target, emphasizing Coherent’s execution on growth opportunities and a strategic move towards an optimized portfolio. Citi analysts have reaffirmed their Buy rating with a $110 target following Coherent’s March-quarter earnings, which exceeded expectations.

Coherent’s management has expressed intentions to balance strong annual growth rates with expanding profit margins, aiming for a gross margin greater than 42% and an operating margin over 24%. The company’s proactive measures to diversify its supply chain and focus on profitable and high-growth businesses have contributed to higher-than-anticipated margins. These developments reflect Coherent’s strategic focus on profitability and efficiency, which are expected to drive the company’s performance in the coming years.

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