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On Tuesday, JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur reiterated an Overweight rating and a $130.00 price target for Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL), which currently trades at $60.69 with a market capitalization of $52.4 billion. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for the stock range from $60 to $135, reflecting the market’s mixed sentiment on this volatile semiconductor player. Sur anticipates that Marvell’s upcoming earnings report on Thursday will reflect a steady uptick in volume for its AI ASIC programs and a robust demand for its 800G products, alongside the initial ramp of 1.6T optical DSPs.
Marvell is expected to showcase a cyclical recovery in its enterprise and carrier segments. The April quarter results are projected to reach around $1.875 billion, marking a 3% quarter-over-quarter increase, while the guidance for the July quarter is estimated to exceed $2.00 billion, reflecting a 7% quarter-over-quarter growth. These figures align with JPMorgan’s and consensus estimates. InvestingPro analysis shows the company generated $5.77 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, with analysts expecting significant sales growth this year.
The company’s datacenter segment is likely to demonstrate solid growth, propelled by AI ASIC ramps and new shipments in 800G/1.6T AI optical and 400ZR technologies, as well as HDD/SSD controllers. Marvell’s business is also set to benefit from cyclical improvements and new product cycles, as previously affirmed in early May.
Sur highlighted Marvell’s advancements in custom ASICs, noting the ongoing production ramp at Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) with the Trainium 2 AI XPU ASIC and the anticipated high-volume ramp of the Trainium 3 program in 2026. Additionally, Marvell’s Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) AI ASIC MAIA Gen 2 program is expected to ramp in the same year, with the Gen 3 MAIA program starting early chip design activities for a 2027/2028 production ramp.
The analyst estimates that Marvell’s AI ASICs and networking revenues could reach $4 billion this year. Furthermore, despite the divestiture of the automotive business anticipated to close in 2025, which might pose a revenue challenge, it is expected to be accretive to earnings by $0.05-$0.10, assuming stock repurchases with the proceeds.
Lastly, Sur emphasized the expansion of Marvell’s custom datacenter and AI ASIC pipeline, including SmartNIC/DPU ASIC chips and eSSD controller ASICs, which are expected to contribute to the company’s growth. The Overweight rating is maintained due to the positive outlook on Marvell’s AI ASIC, optical, cloud, and storage segments, coupled with the recovery of cyclical businesses like 5G and enterprise. With a beta of 1.82 and trading at an EBITDA multiple of 41.4x, investors seeking deeper insights can access comprehensive analysis and 12+ additional ProTips through InvestingPro’s detailed research report.
In other recent news, Marvell Technology has updated its revenue forecast for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, projecting net revenue to be approximately $1.875 billion, with a refined guidance range of +/- 2%. This revision offers a more precise expectation compared to the previous broader range of +/- 5%. Additionally, Marvell has postponed its Investor Day, initially planned for June 2025, to an unspecified date in 2026, citing challenging macroeconomic conditions. Meanwhile, Stifel analysts have maintained a Buy rating on Marvell, with a price target of $80, expressing optimism about the company’s custom AI infrastructure ASIC business. Melius Research, however, downgraded Marvell from Buy to Hold, keeping the price target at $66, due to unmaterialized expected outcomes. In contrast, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) has retained its Equalweight rating with a $90 price target, noting ongoing debates about Marvell’s custom silicon projects with major clients like Microsoft and Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL). Marvell plans to host a webinar in June 2025 to discuss its advancements in custom AI infrastructure, aiming to provide insights into the evolving AI technology landscape.
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