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On Tuesday, JPMorgan analyst Enrico Bolzoni upgraded Avanza Bank Holding AB (AZA:SS) from Underweight to Neutral, while also raising the price target on the shares to SEK279.00, up from the previous SEK214.00. The revision reflects an optimistic outlook for the bank’s potential earnings growth, driven by strategic changes in its savings account offerings.
Bolzoni’s analysis suggests that Avanza Bank’s recent decision to discontinue the provision of external savings accounts on its platform is likely to boost the volume of internal deposits significantly. This change is expected to contribute to a considerable increase in the bank’s net interest income (NII). The forecast for Avanza’s NII has been raised by 20% for 2026 and 26% for 2027, which in turn has led to an 11% and 14% increase in the firm’s earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the respective years.
The upgrade in the stock’s rating is also supported by a reduction in the discount rate used in JPMorgan’s discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. This adjustment is attributed to the lower risk-free rate in Sweden, which suggests a reduced level of risk associated with the bank’s future cash flows.
JPMorgan’s revised estimates incorporate the assumption that Avanza Bank will be able to capture approximately 50% of the SEK43 billion in external deposits that clients currently hold via its platform over the next three years. This anticipated shift in deposit structure is central to the improved financial outlook for the bank.
Avanza Bank’s strategic pivot towards internal deposit growth is poised to enhance its financial performance in the coming years, as reflected in the updated analysis from JPMorgan. The bank’s shares are now viewed with a neutral stance by the firm, up from the previous underweight rating, indicating a more balanced perspective on the stock’s investment potential.
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