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Investing.com - JPMorgan has maintained its Overweight rating and EUR95.00 price target on Heineken NV (AS:HEIA) (OTC:HEINY) ahead of the company’s third-quarter results and Capital Markets Day scheduled for October 22 and 23, respectively.
The investment bank has revised its forecast for Heineken’s FY25 volumes downward to -1.7% from -0.1% previously, citing cyclically weaker demand and adverse weather conditions in Brazil, Mexico, and India, along with persistent weakness in Europe.
Despite the volume reduction, JPMorgan maintains its organic EBIT growth projection at +6.1%, supported by productivity initiatives, price increases, and stronger performance in Vietnam.
At the upcoming Capital Markets Day, JPMorgan expects Heineken to maintain its medium-term organic EBIT growth guidance of +4-8% while potentially raising its free cash flow outlook to EUR3-3.5 billion from the current EUR2.5-2.7 billion range.
The firm views Heineken’s valuation as attractive at 12.6x 2026E P/E and 7.6x EV/EBITDA, representing a 13%/20% discount to the sector, and suggests the stock offers favorable risk/reward over the next six months despite potential near-term pressure ahead of third-quarter results.
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