U.S. may expand Nvidia and AMD’s 15% China chips deal to other companies
On Monday, JPMorgan analysts provided insights on the current economic data trends and their implications for equity markets. They noted a divergence between ’hard’ and ’soft’ data, with hard data remaining resilient throughout the year, while soft data has indicated potential weakness. According to InvestingPro data, market indicators reflect this divergence, with the financial health score maintaining a "GOOD" rating despite recent market uncertainties. Despite this, there is a belief that a more supportive policy environment could lead to a recovery in soft data, with hard data potentially remaining stable due to activity frontloading ahead of tariffs.
The analysts expressed concern over consumer surveys that reflect a negative perception of labor market health, marking the first time since 2010 that indicators suggest a potential decline in payrolls, excluding the exogenous shock from COVID-19. High levels of job cuts, similar to those seen during recessions, and rising inflation expectations point to a real income squeeze. Additionally, the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data has shown a softening in the G-4 economies, particularly in the services sector, which had previously been robust.
The analysts also highlighted the volatility in the market due to ongoing tariff news, with recent recoveries attributed to a rollback of some tariff threats. Market data from InvestingPro shows a beta of 0.47, suggesting lower volatility compared to the broader market. The analysts cautioned that tariff levels are likely to settle higher than initially expected, potentially having a significant impact on markets, akin to the tariff-induced downturn in 2018. InvestingPro Tips indicate strong financial fundamentals, including maintained dividend payments for 24 consecutive years.
Looking ahead, JPMorgan maintains a cautious stance for the first half of 2025, anticipating market weakness and trade uncertainty. They suggest waiting for hard data to align more closely with soft data, for earnings projections to adjust, and for tariff issues to stabilize before increasing exposure to risk. On a regional basis, the analysts see improving risk-reward for international markets compared to the US, suggesting that non-US equities could outperform, especially if recession risks become dominant or if the tariff situation improves further. They point out that the US currently holds over 70% of global equity weight, a significant increase from 50% fifteen years ago. InvestingPro data reveals a healthy dividend yield of 4.4% and robust current ratio of 2.3, indicating strong financial stability amid market uncertainties. Discover more comprehensive market insights and investment opportunities with an InvestingPro subscription.
In other recent news, China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries have been under scrutiny amid significant fluctuations in the U.S. bond market. Analysts, including those from Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS). and Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C)., have speculated that China might consider selling off these assets as a retaliatory measure against U.S. tariffs. The U.S. Treasury reported a consistent decrease in China’s holdings, reaching the lowest level since at least 2011. Meanwhile, Mohamed A. El-Erian, a chief economic adviser at Allianz (ETR:ALVG), noted that ongoing changes in the bond markets might compel U.S. and UK policymakers to take action, potentially affecting interest rates and taxes. U.S. equity funds saw the largest outflows in three months, with $33.53 billion withdrawn, driven by tariff concerns and Federal Reserve decisions. In contrast, U.S. bond funds continued to attract demand, recording a net inflow of $8.44 billion during a recent week. PIMCO highlighted the diminishing dominance of U.S. capital markets and suggested global diversification amid declining business and consumer confidence. The firm anticipates that fixed income assets might outperform equities, advising a shift towards stable investments.
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