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On Monday, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods updated their outlook on Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp (NYSE: NYSE:AGM), commonly known as Farmer Mac, with a raised price target. Analyst Bose T. George increased the target to $230 from the previous $205 while maintaining a Market Perform rating on the stock.
The adjustment in the price target reflects a forward-looking approach to the company’s financial projections. Keefe analysts have updated their earnings estimates for the years 2025 and 2026 to $17.63 and $19.62 respectively, a slight change from their earlier projections of $17.69 and $19.34. The new estimates take into account an anticipated stability in forward spreads, which are now expected to be 115 basis points (bp) for each of the years 2025, 2026, and 2027. This is a slight increase from previous expectations of 113 bp and 114 bp for 2025 and 2026. Notably, InvestingPro data shows the company has maintained dividend payments for 22 consecutive years, with a current dividend yield of 2.69%.
The analysts have also introduced a 2027 earnings estimate of $20.94, indicating a continued positive outlook for Farmer Mac’s financial performance. The adjustment in spread expectations follows management’s guidance that they anticipate spreads to remain relatively stable when compared to the 116 bp spread observed in the fourth quarter.
Despite the positive adjustments to earnings estimates and spread expectations, the analysts have also accounted for potential increases in credit losses and expenses. They have modestly raised their loss provisions to reflect growth outside the traditional Farm & Ranch segment, which is not seen as a major concern but warrants a conservative approach in their analysis.
The new price target of $230 is based on applying an approximate 12 times price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple on the firm’s projected 2026 earnings per share (EPS), a shift from the previous methodology that was based on 2025 EPS projections. The Market Perform rating suggests that the analysts believe Farmer Mac’s stock will perform in line with the market expectations.
In other recent news, Farmer Mac has expanded its credit facility with the National Rural Utilities Cooperative Finance Corporation (CFC) to $6.5 billion. This amendment, effective immediately, increases the maximum purchase amount from $6 billion and extends the borrowing period until January 14, 2030, with options for yearly renewals. The updated agreement includes a revised Pledge Agreement with U.S. Bank National Association, ensuring CFC pledges eligible rural utilities loans as security. These financial arrangements are consistent with standard market conditions and were conducted at arm’s length. Additionally, Farmer Mac reported the passing of board member Roy H. Tiarks, who was serving as the chair of the Enterprise Risk Committee. The Board is considering filling the vacancy left by Tiarks before the next annual stockholders’ meeting scheduled for May. The decision on whether to appoint a new member for the remainder of Tiarks’ term, ending in May 2025, will be discussed in an upcoming meeting. These developments reflect Farmer Mac’s ongoing efforts to enhance its operations and governance.
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