Keefe cuts Hope Bancorp target to $14, cites NII headwinds

Published 28/01/2025, 14:26
Keefe cuts Hope Bancorp target to $14, cites NII headwinds

On Tuesday, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) set a new price target for Hope Bancorp shares, lowering it to $14 from the previous $15.50, while maintaining a Market Perform rating. The adjustment follows an evaluation of the company's fourth-quarter performance and its 2025 net interest income (NII) guidance, which KBW believes could pressure the stock's earnings per share (EPS) estimates and its trading value relative to tangible book value (TBV) per share.

The firm's analysis suggests that Hope Bancorp's return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) is expected to remain subdued, with projections of 7% in 2025 and mid-8% in 2026. These estimates are influenced by factors such as a persistent high-interest-rate environment, diminished interest rate accretion from the anticipated Territorial Bancorp (NASDAQ:TBNK) acquisition, and uneven deposit betas. The resultant significant downward revisions in EPS following the quarter's report are a concern for KBW analysts.

Despite these challenges, Hope Bancorp's stock performance on Monday was stable, aligning with the KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX) with a 1% increase. This is attributed to the stock's already low valuation, which stands at 0.9 times TBV per share. Currently trading at a price-to-book ratio of 0.68 and offering a 4.57% dividend yield, InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock is slightly overvalued at its current price of $12.25. KBW's stance reflects a cautious outlook for the bank's stock valuation, suggesting that unless the interest rate environment becomes more favorable for Hope Bancorp, a significant re-rating of the stock may be difficult to achieve. Notably, the bank has maintained dividend payments for 13 consecutive years, demonstrating commitment to shareholder returns despite market challenges.

The firm's commentary points to the gap between Hope Bancorp's current return on average assets (ROAA), which was 0.6% in 2024, and its medium-term target of over 1.2% in 2027 and beyond. The latest data from InvestingPro shows an ROA of 0.54% and an overall Financial Health Score of "FAIR," suggesting room for improvement. Bridging this gap is seen as the potential catalyst for an improved valuation over time. For deeper insights into Hope Bancorp's financial health metrics and growth potential, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively to InvestingPro subscribers.

KBW's analysis concludes that until Hope Bancorp can navigate the headwinds and align with a more beneficial rate outlook, the firm anticipates the stock to continue trading at or slightly below TBV per share, justifying the continuation of a Market Perform rating.

In other recent news, Hope Bancorp announced stable Q3 earnings, with a net income of $24.2 million, or $0.20 per diluted share, and adjusted earnings of $25.2 million, or $0.21 per share. The company also reported an 11% annualized growth in customer deposits and a 2% increase in loans receivable. Furthermore, Hope Bancorp declared a quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share and projected low single-digit growth in loans and net interest income for Q4.

In addition to the earnings report, significant news broke about Hope Bancorp's merger with Territorial Bancorp. Both companies' shareholders have voted in favor of the merger, marking a strategic consolidation within the banking industry. The merger, however, is still subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions.

These recent developments reflect the evolving landscape of the banking sector, with mergers and acquisitions becoming increasingly common. As part of this trend, Hope Bancorp and Territorial Bancorp's merger represents a significant move within the regional banking sector. It's important to note that while these developments are recent, the completion of the merger remains contingent upon meeting all necessary conditions, including regulatory approvals.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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