KeyBanc maintains Charter stock at $500 target, sees Cox deal accretive

Published 21/05/2025, 11:56
KeyBanc maintains Charter stock at $500 target, sees Cox deal accretive

On Wednesday, KeyBanc Capital Markets reiterated its Overweight rating on Charter Communications (NASDAQ:CHTR) with a steadfast price target of $500.00. The firm’s analyst, Brandon Nispel, expressed confidence in the company’s valuation and the financial benefits anticipated from Charter’s acquisition of Cox Communications. With a current market capitalization of $64.7 billion and trading near its 52-week high of $437, Charter has demonstrated strong momentum, delivering an impressive 54% return over the past year. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears slightly undervalued based on its proprietary Fair Value model.

Nispel highlighted the operational synergies and financial accretion expected from the Cox acquisition, which is seen as a positive move for Charter Communications. He noted that while the acquisition may not immediately boost Charter’s revenue growth due to conservative assumptions, it is projected to enhance leverage and free cash flow per share. According to the analyst’s estimates, the acquisition could be approximately 2.5% accretive to Charter’s free cash flow per share in the first year and potentially 10% accretive by the third year. The company’s current financial health appears solid, with an EBITDA of $22.15 billion and a relatively attractive P/E ratio of 11.6x. Want deeper insights? InvestingPro subscribers have access to over 10 additional exclusive tips and comprehensive financial metrics for Charter Communications.

The analysis presented by KeyBanc also included a pro forma model of Charter Communications combined with Cox, suggesting an acceleration of the firm’s investment thesis. Nispel pointed out that the sellers of Cox are aligned with Charter’s vision, which he considers a strong indicator of the deal’s strategic fit.

Charter Communications’ stock is currently trading at approximately 6 times KeyBanc’s projected 2026 adjusted EBITDA and around 9.5 times the projected free cash flow per share, which Nispel believes indicates that the stock is undervalued. The reiteration of the Overweight rating and the $500 price target is a reflection of KeyBanc’s positive outlook on Charter’s financial health and the strategic benefits of the Cox acquisition.

In other recent news, Charter Communications has announced a significant acquisition of Cox Communications in a deal valued at $34.5 billion, which includes both stock and cash components. This merger is expected to expand Charter’s operational scale, increasing its footprint to around 70 million passings, and it will enhance its position as the largest U.S. multichannel video programming distributor. Fitch Ratings has placed Charter on a positive rating watch, anticipating a reduction in leverage and an improvement in operational scale following the acquisition. Analysts from Loop Capital have upgraded Charter’s stock to Buy, raising the price target to $510, citing the merger’s potential for accretive value and scale efficiencies. Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James also upgraded Charter’s rating to Market Perform, noting the transaction’s favorable valuation and potential to enhance Charter’s financial trajectory. UBS analysts, however, maintained a Neutral rating with a $400 price target, projecting initial dilution to free cash flow per share but eventual accretive value as synergies are realized. Additionally, Liberty Broadband (NASDAQ:LBRDA) Corporation announced plans to expedite its acquisition by Charter, aligning it with the Charter-Cox merger timeline. These developments highlight Charter’s strategic moves to strengthen its market position and operational capabilities.

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