KeyBanc maintains Darden Restaurants stock Overweight rating

Published 13/03/2025, 14:04
KeyBanc maintains Darden Restaurants stock Overweight rating

On Thursday, KeyBanc Capital Markets maintained its Overweight rating on Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI) shares, keeping the price target at $200.00. The firm’s analyst, Eric Gonzalez, provided insights on the company’s outlook, adjusting earnings per share (EPS) expectations ahead of the fiscal third quarter 2025 (F3Q25) results, due March 20. The restaurant chain, currently valued at $22.24 billion, trades at 21.5 times earnings, according to InvestingPro data.

Gonzalez noted that while proprietary and third-party data indicate a potential shortfall in the Olive Garden segment compared to consensus forecasts, the LongHorn segment’s consistency and the introduction of delivery services at the start of fiscal fourth quarter 2025 (F4Q25) could support the stock’s valuation. The company maintains a GOOD financial health score of 2.77 on InvestingPro, with revenue growing at 5.14% over the last twelve months. Despite a likely challenging period for Darden and the casual dining industry, Gonzalez believes these factors are sufficient to maintain the current stock valuation.

In light of the mixed outlook, KeyBanc has revised its same-store sales (SSS) growth estimate for F3Q25 from 2.4% to 1.5%. Additionally, the firm has adjusted its EPS forecast for fiscal year 2025 (FY25) downward to $9.44, which is below the consensus estimate of $9.49. The FY26 EPS estimate has also been modified, now set at $10.78, reduced from the previous $10.81. Notably, Darden has maintained dividend payments for 31 consecutive years, demonstrating strong financial stability.Get deeper insights into Darden’s valuation and growth prospects with InvestingPro, which offers exclusive access to detailed financial analysis and over 8 additional ProTips.

The $200 price target set by KeyBanc is based on an approximate 18.5 times multiple of the firm’s FY26 EPS estimate. This valuation reflects the analyst’s outlook on Darden Restaurants’ earnings potential and market position within the industry despite the anticipated near-term challenges. The stock currently trades near its InvestingPro Fair Value, with analyst targets ranging from $145 to $230.

In other recent news, Darden Restaurants reported second-quarter earnings for fiscal year 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $2.03, slightly surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.02. This outperformance was driven by stronger comparable sales and reduced food costs. Following these results, BMO Capital Markets increased their price target for Darden from $165 to $175, while maintaining a Market Perform rating. Similarly, Stephens raised their price target to $175 from $164, citing better-than-expected same-store sales, margins, and EPS. Darden also updated its full-year 2025 comparable sales guidance to approximately 1.5%.

In other developments, KeyBanc Capital Markets reiterated an Overweight rating for Darden, with a $200 price target, highlighting the company’s undervaluation and strong demand. Meanwhile, Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James reaffirmed a Strong Buy rating with a $65 target, emphasizing the strategic advantages of Darling Ingredients (NYSE:DAR)’ business lines. Additionally, Darden announced the retirement of board member Nana Mensah, with no immediate plans for a successor. These updates reflect ongoing strategic and operational shifts within Darden Restaurants.

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