KeyBanc optimistic on EVH stock following updates

Published 14/01/2025, 13:28
KeyBanc optimistic on EVH stock following updates

Tuesday's market saw a varied response to the latest updates on Healthcare Services (NASDAQ:HCSG) companies provided by KeyBanc analyst Matthew Gillmor. EVH, in particular, stood out with a mostly positive update that could significantly impact its stock performance.

Despite not issuing explicit 2025 guidance, KeyBanc inferred that EVH's implied 2025 EBITDA could exceed $200 million, a figure that is notably higher than previously anticipated by investors, given the company's current valuation of less than 10 times EBITDA and existing low investor confidence.

In contrast, ARDT's stock experienced a decline post-market after the company's 2025 EBITDA projections and updated long-term targets indicated figures slightly below the consensus of the Street. ARDT anticipates a 2025 EBITDA growth in the mid-single digits, which KeyBanc estimates to be around $590 million to $600 million, marginally lower than the FactSet consensus of $619 million.

The shortfall was attributed to higher professional fees, less contribution from mergers and acquisitions than previously included, and management's conservative approach. Despite this, KeyBanc maintains a very favorable long-term view of ARDT's joint venture growth strategy.

EVH's recent achievements include securing $100 million to $105 million in payor contract updates, surpassing the company's earlier view of $100 million. This includes rate increases in the Performance Suite and a contract transition to Tech Services. However, EVH faces potential challenges with higher oncology costs and the impact of payor plan exits, which could create a drag on 2025 EBITDA. Nevertheless, KeyBanc's assessment suggests that EVH's implied EBITDA could be more than $210 million, considering both the contract adjustments and potential headwinds.

Other companies covered by KeyBanc also shared updates. ACHC reported steady same-facility patient-day growth for the fourth quarter of 2024, aligning with guidance and suggesting a slight acceleration in the latter part of the year. This update was seen as reassuring amid concerns of further disruptions.

ALHC's update on expected membership growth for 2025 and the reaffirmation of its 2024 and 2025 EBITDA outlook were viewed as modestly encouraging, indicating controlled costs and a strong position for continued growth. Lastly, PRVA reaffirmed its 2024 guidance, which KeyBanc interpreted as a modestly positive signal.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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