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Tuesday, KeyBanc Capital Markets indicated potential positive outcomes for NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) and mixed implications for Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:MPWR) following NVIDIA’s decision to revert to a previous compute board design for its upcoming product release. According to InvestingPro data, MPWR maintains strong financial health with a "GREAT" overall score, despite recent market volatility. According to KeyBanc analysts, NVIDIA is switching back to the Bianca compute board, which integrates one CPU and two GPUs, from the Cordelia compute board that houses two CPUs and four GPUs. This change is attributed to a signal loss issue associated with the Cordelia board’s SXM socket interface.
NVIDIA’s shift is seen as a strategic move to ensure the on-time launch of its GB300 on the Blackwell Ultra platform, slated for the fourth quarter of 2025. The Bianca board is expected to facilitate a smoother transition from the current Blackwell to the advanced Blackwell Ultra, minimizing changes and providing a drop-in replacement for NVIDIA’s NVL72 rack structure. This transition is critical for NVIDIA to meet its shipment target for the year, which is heavily weighted towards the second half.
For Monolithic Power Systems, the implications are more nuanced. While the B300 HGX will continue using the custom DrMOS 5x5 power solution, with Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Ltd. (NASDAQ:AOSL) as the sole power supplier, NVIDIA may still be motivated to onboard a second source. However, with the GB300 leveraging the same power structure as the GB200, where Infineon Technologies AG (OTC:IFNNY) (ETR:IFX) and Renesas Electronics Corporation (TYO:6723) are the main suppliers, NVIDIA might be less inclined to add a third vendor. MPWR operates with moderate debt levels and maintains strong liquidity, with current assets significantly exceeding short-term obligations at a ratio of 5.31. Despite this, the Bianca board’s standard power specification could mean higher average selling prices, potentially benefiting MPWR if it manages to capture market share on the GB300.
This strategic shift by NVIDIA is seen as a way to maintain its competitive edge and adhere to its product launch schedule, while also potentially influencing the dynamics of supplier relationships in the semiconductor industry. Despite a challenging six-month period where MPWR’s stock declined by approximately 42%, the company continues to show strong revenue growth of 21.2% over the last twelve months. InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently undervalued, with 13 analysts recently revising their earnings expectations upward for the upcoming period. For detailed insights and access to comprehensive financial metrics, investors can explore MPWR’s full Pro Research Report, available exclusively on InvestingPro.
In other recent news, Monolithic Power Systems has made several notable announcements and adjustments. The company has revised its bylaws to allow shareholders holding at least 30% of the stock to call special meetings, empowering them with more influence over company decisions. On the financial front, Monolithic Power Systems raised its first-quarter revenue guidance to $635 million, a significant increase from the prior estimate of $620 million, as reported by KeyBanc analysts. This adjustment aligns with the company’s long-term model projecting revenue growth to surpass the market by 15-20%, with gross margins between 55-60%.
Analysts have also weighed in on the company’s prospects. Stifel adjusted its price target for Monolithic Power Systems from $1,100 to $880 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing potential revenue guidance concerns for Q2 2025. Meanwhile, Truist Securities reaffirmed a Buy rating with a price target of $897, highlighting the company’s innovation in the analog semiconductor sector. Needham also maintained its Buy rating with an $800 target, noting increased guidance for the first quarter of 2025 due to strong demand in Enterprise Data.
Monolithic Power Systems continues to focus on expanding its market presence, particularly in data centers, automotive, and battery management. However, KeyBanc analysts expressed caution regarding the company’s Blackwell Ultra product’s market share at NVIDIA, which remains uncertain. Despite this, the overall sentiment from analysts remains optimistic about the company’s ability to maintain strong fundamentals and achieve sustained growth.
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