Loop Capital cuts CPKC stock rating following tariff news

On Monday, Loop Capital Markets adjusted its stance on Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (NYSE:CP), downgrading the railway’s stock rating from Buy to Sell. The move comes in response to recent tariff developments that could signal a brewing trade conflict between North American countries. According to InvestingPro data, eight analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates downward for the upcoming period, suggesting growing concerns about the company’s near-term outlook.

Rick Paterson of Loop Capital cited the company’s unique exposure to trade between the United States and Canada as a key reason for the downgrade. Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited operates rail lines on both sides of the US-Canada border, positioning it at the forefront of any potential trade disruptions caused by the new tariffs. Despite these concerns, the company maintains impressive gross profit margins of 51.86% and achieved revenue growth of 15.86% over the last twelve months.

Paterson’s analysis, prompted by the tariff announcement on Saturday, highlighted Canadian Pacific Kansas City’s vulnerability to valuation pressures. The company currently trades at a P/E ratio of 29.05x, even higher than previously noted, and InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis suggests the stock is slightly overvalued at current levels. For deeper insights into CP’s valuation metrics and more than 10 additional ProTips, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.

The analyst’s comments reflect concerns about the railway’s stock performance in the face of a looming North American trade war. The tariffs are expected to have a direct impact on cross-border trade activities, which are a significant part of Canadian Pacific Kansas City’s operations.

The downgrade serves as a cautionary note for investors, signaling potential challenges ahead for Canadian Pacific Kansas City as it navigates the uncertainties of international trade relations. Loop Capital’s reassessment of the railway’s stock underscores the potential financial impact of geopolitical events on sector-specific companies.

In other recent news, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPKC) has reported several significant developments. The company’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings exceeded expectations, with an adjusted earnings per share of C$1.29 and a 2.3% increase in revenue ton-miles. This performance led Citi analyst Ariel Rosa to raise the price target for CPKC to $91.00, maintaining a Buy rating on the company’s shares.

CPKC has also reached a tentative four-year agreement with the union Unifor, affecting various Canadian employees. In addition, the company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.19 per share, marking 24 consecutive years of dividend payments.

Several analyst firms have updated their ratings for CPKC. Wolfe Research upgraded the company’s stock rating to Outperform following the acquisition of Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU). Jefferies maintained a Buy rating, emphasizing potential for share repurchases in 2025. RBC Capital, despite reducing its price target, upheld an Outperform rating. However, Stephens maintained an Equal Weight rating due to uncertainties, revising its price target for CPKC to $81.

These recent developments are part of the company’s strategic plan, which includes modest growth in average headcount and potential benefits from the expected resumption of share repurchases. However, Benchmark analysts have pointed out that the current stock valuation already reflects this strategic plan, with the stock trading at a premium.

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