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On Thursday, Loop Capital Markets adjusted its price target for Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE:LOW) shares, reducing it from $300 to $295, while retaining a Buy rating on the stock. The adjustment followed Lowe’s release of a fourth-quarter performance that surpassed expectations but also included a more cautious outlook for fiscal year 2025. According to InvestingPro data, Lowe’s, a prominent player in the Specialty Retail industry with a market capitalization of $140 billion, appears to be trading above its Fair Value. The company has demonstrated remarkable stability, maintaining dividend payments for 55 consecutive years.
Lowe’s reported a slight 0.2% increase in comparable store sales ( Comp (WA:CMP)) for the fourth quarter, which was attributed to insurance payments that spurred repair work following storms earlier in the year. Additionally, the company’s Black Friday sales were noted to have performed better than anticipated. Despite these positive developments, Loop Capital’s analyst pointed out that the Federal Reserve’s pause on lowering interest rates was a factor in the decision to trim the price target. The company maintains strong fundamentals with a P/E ratio of 20.6 and generated revenue of $83.7 billion in the last twelve months. Want deeper insights? InvestingPro offers comprehensive analysis with 8+ additional exclusive tips about Lowe’s financial health and market position.
The analyst also mentioned that while the professional customer initiatives have been showing promising growth, the investments in this area are expected to constrain gross margin improvements. Even with a lower margin outlook, the analyst expressed little concern, citing only a slight impact on the company’s model—a 30 basis points decrease due to higher depreciation, balanced by a 10 basis points improvement in the selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) rate estimate.
For the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, Loop Capital anticipates that Lowe’s sales could be negatively affected by colder weather, particularly in the company’s southern markets. The firm’s full-year 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimate for Lowe’s is now seven cents below the prior consensus, with revenues projected to align closely with previous consensus figures. A modest recovery is expected for fiscal year 2025, with same-store sales (SSS) projected to increase by 1% following a 3% decline in fiscal year 2024.
In other recent news, Lowe’s Companies Inc. reported strong fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, surpassing Wall Street expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.93 compared to the forecasted $1.81. Revenue for the quarter reached $18.55 billion, exceeding the anticipated $18.19 billion, highlighting continued growth in the Pro segment and online sales. Despite these positive results, Lowe’s provided a 2025 earnings guidance that fell short of market expectations, projecting sales between $83.5 billion and $84.5 billion with comparable sales expected to be flat to up 1%.
Analyst firms have adjusted their outlooks in response to these developments. Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities reduced Lowe’s price target to $300 from $305 while maintaining an Outperform rating, citing expected first-quarter sales declines influenced by weather conditions. Similarly, Truist Securities lowered its price target to $295 from $308, keeping a Buy rating, while highlighting strong performance in the professional contractor segment. KeyBanc maintained a Sector Weight rating, acknowledging Lowe’s resilience but expressing caution due to elevated interest rates and valuation constraints.
These recent developments reflect a mixed outlook for Lowe’s, with strong past performance tempered by cautious future projections amid broader economic challenges.
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