Macau’s October gaming revenue rises 16% year-over-year, Goldman says

Investing.com - Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached MOP24.1 billion in October, representing a 16% year-over-year increase that exceeded Goldman Sachs’ and market expectations of approximately 12% growth. This positive trend is particularly significant for operators like MGM China, whose parent company MGM Resorts currently trades at $32.03 with a high P/E ratio of 132.39, according to InvestingPro data.

The strong performance came despite a softer start during the first two weeks of the month, when revenue declined 5% year-over-year due to temporary factors including Typhoon Matmo on October 5, the Golden Week holiday overlapping with the Mid-Autumn Festival, and player diversion to the Formula 1 event in Singapore.

Revenue improved significantly from October 13-31, averaging approximately MOP760 million per day, surpassing both last year’s run-rate of MOP570 million and the MOP700 million daily average during the summer season when high-profile concerts were held at Cotai and Galaxy Arena.

Casino operators reported the return of larger players over the past 2-3 weeks, some of whom had postponed trips due to the typhoon or Mid-Autumn Festival, helping October’s growth rate maintain momentum similar to earlier months (+19%/19%/12% in June/July/August).

Goldman Sachs maintains Buy ratings on Sands China, Galaxy, MGM China and MLCO, noting that Galaxy and MGM China likely gained market share in October while Sands China’s share remained steady month-over-month, with the sector trading at what the firm considers an undemanding valuation of 9x EV/EBITDA and 7-8% FCF yield. InvestingPro analysis shows MGM is currently trading slightly above its Fair Value, with analyst price targets ranging from $31 to $58. Despite its volatility (Beta of 1.67), MGM remains profitable over the last twelve months. For comprehensive insights on MGM and 1,400+ other stocks, check out the Pro Research Reports available on InvestingPro.

In other recent news, MGM Resorts International reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings, which revealed a significant miss on earnings per share (EPS). The company posted an EPS of $0.24, falling short of the forecasted $0.39, marking a 38.46% negative surprise. However, revenue slightly exceeded expectations, reaching $4.3 billion compared to the projected $4.25 billion. Analyst firms have reacted to these developments with varying adjustments to their ratings and price targets for MGM Resorts. CFRA downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold, citing weaknesses in Las Vegas operations and reduced its price target to $35.00. Stifel maintained a Buy rating but lowered its price target to $45.00, also pointing to Las Vegas softness. Goldman Sachs maintained a Sell rating, adjusting its target to $31.00 due to mixed third-quarter results, particularly in Las Vegas. In contrast, Mizuho raised its price target to $62.00, maintaining an Outperform rating despite lower-than-expected Las Vegas EBITDA figures. These recent developments reflect the mixed sentiment among analysts regarding MGM’s future performance.

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