Macquarie cuts NIO stock price target citing cash burn concerns

Published 03/06/2025, 21:44
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On Tuesday, Macquarie analysts adjusted their outlook for NIO stock (NYSE: NIO), lowering the price target to $3.90 from $4.70 while maintaining a Neutral rating. The revision follows the release of NIO’s first-quarter 2025 results, which fell short of Bloomberg consensus and Macquarie estimates across key metrics. According to InvestingPro data, NIO’s stock has declined 19.27% year-to-date, while three analysts have recently revised their earnings expectations downward. The stock currently appears undervalued based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis.

The analysts noted that NIO is facing increased competition in the battery electric vehicle (BEV) market, while its Onvo model has yet to achieve sustainable production volumes. Despite this, NIO remains committed to its goal of breaking even by the fourth quarter of 2025, as part of a major organizational restructuring aimed at tightening research and development spending. InvestingPro analysis reveals a weak overall Financial Health score of 1.45, with particularly concerning metrics in profitability and cash flow.

The report highlighted several areas of concern, including a significant drop in NIO’s cash balance to RMB 26 billion in the first quarter from RMB 42 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. Additionally, the gross profit margin of 7.6% was below the 10.6% consensus and the 12.3% Macquarie estimate, attributed to negative scale effects. The adjusted net loss of RMB 6.3 billion was also higher than expected. InvestingPro’s detailed analysis shows trailing twelve-month gross margins at 9.88% and negative free cash flow of $2.3 billion, indicating significant operational challenges.

For the second quarter, NIO’s guidance includes vehicle deliveries of 72,000 to 75,000 units, representing a 26-31% year-over-year increase, slightly above the consensus of 70,000 units. Revenue guidance is set between RMB 19.5 billion and RMB 20.1 billion, aligning with the consensus of RMB 19.6 billion. The company aims to reach a monthly production volume of 50,000 units and achieve profitability by the end of 2025. With revenue growth of 18.18% in the last twelve months, NIO faces significant challenges in meeting its profitability targets.

In other recent news, NIO Inc (NYSE:NIO). reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, revealing a total revenue of RMB12 billion, which represents a 22% increase year-over-year but a 39% decline quarter-over-quarter. Despite the revenue growth, the company’s gross profit margin improved by only 2.7 percentage points year-over-year to 7.6%, falling short of analyst expectations. NIO’s operational loss was RMB6.4 billion, exceeding forecasts, and the non-GAAP net loss stood at RMB6.3 billion, a 28% increase year-over-year. Analysts at BofA Securities and Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) have both lowered their price targets for NIO, with BofA setting it at $4.30 and Mizuho at $3.50, both maintaining a Neutral rating. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reiterated an Overweight rating with a price target of $5.90, noting a decline in vehicle gross margin but highlighting a potential sales recovery in the second quarter. NIO has provided guidance for the July quarter, projecting revenue of RMB19.8 billion and deliveries of 73,500 units, surpassing consensus estimates. The company aims for improved gross margins with new model launches and targets breakeven by the fourth quarter of 2025. Despite a 32% month-on-month drop in NIO brand volumes, the ONVO brand saw a 43% increase, and the Firefly model sold 3,700 units in its first month.

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