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Investing.com - Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) maintained its Neutral rating and $184.00 price target on Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC), which is trading near its 52-week high of $183.31, ahead of the company’s second-quarter 2025 earnings report scheduled for August 5.
The investment firm expects Marathon to post small beats on both EBITDA and EPS compared to consensus estimates, approximately 2% and 3% higher respectively. These projected results reflect the impact of sequentially higher crack spreads, partially offset by slightly lower capture rates and higher volumes. According to InvestingPro, 5 analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates downward for the upcoming period.
Mizuho forecasts Refining EBITDA of $1.5 billion for the quarter, a significant improvement from $0.5 billion in the first quarter of 2025 but below the $2.0 billion reported in the second quarter of 2024. This segment is expected to be the primary driver of the quarter-over-quarter change in consolidated EBITDA.
The firm anticipates slightly weaker sequential performance in Marathon’s Midstream segment due to higher expenses, the absence of a one-off item from the previous quarter, and lower NGL prices. The Renewable Diesel segment is expected to show reduced losses as Production Tax Credit ( PTC (NASDAQ:PTC)) credits are recognized.
Despite acknowledging a constructive refining macro outlook and Marathon’s strong execution, Mizuho maintained its Neutral stance on the stock, citing "higher upside elsewhere" in its coverage universe as the rationale for not upgrading the rating. The stock has shown impressive momentum with a 29.58% gain over the past six months, though InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently trading near its Fair Value. Get access to 12 more exclusive InvestingPro Tips and comprehensive valuation metrics with an InvestingPro subscription.
In other recent news, Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported a net loss of $0.24 per share for the first quarter of 2025, significantly missing analysts’ expectations of $0.18 EPS. Despite this, the company’s revenue slightly exceeded forecasts, totaling $31.85 billion against a predicted $31.71 billion. Wolfe Research raised its price target on Marathon Petroleum to $187.00, maintaining an Outperform rating and noting the company’s industry-low cost structures and strategic investments. Evercore ISI initiated coverage on Marathon Petroleum with an In Line rating, projecting earnings per share between $9.5 and $13.6 through 2027. The firm highlighted Marathon’s dual exposure to refining and midstream operations, which supports its capital return framework. Marathon Petroleum has also been active in share buybacks, repurchasing about 45% of its outstanding shares since 2022, with plans to continue at this pace. Despite the earnings miss, Marathon returned over $1.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and repurchases in the first quarter of 2025. The company remains optimistic about the refining environment, particularly on the West Coast, where it is investing in infrastructure improvements.
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