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On Thursday, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities adjusted its outlook on Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:LOW), reducing the price target to $300 from the previous $305, while maintaining an Outperform rating on the stock. The adjustment followed Lowe’s recent commentary indicating an expected decline in first-quarter comparable sales by approximately 200 basis points compared to the fourth quarter, which appears to be significantly influenced by weather conditions. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for Lowe’s currently range from $217 to $309, with the company trading at a P/E ratio of 20.6x and commanding a market capitalization of $140 billion.
The firm’s analysis suggests that quarter-to-date comparable sales are trending downward by more than 3%, with the entirety of February affected by colder temperatures, unlike the last two weeks of January which experienced similar conditions. Despite this, Mizuho anticipates a rebound in the second quarter, with guidance suggesting a flat performance in the first half of the year, leading to a positive low single-digit percentage increase in comparable sales for the more critical Q2 period. InvestingPro analysis indicates that Lowe’s maintains strong financial health metrics, with particularly robust profitability scores, suggesting resilience through seasonal fluctuations.
Additionally, Lowe’s online segment continues to show robust growth, supported by double-digit percentage gains from professional customers and a potential shift in pro-oriented sales to online channels. Mizuho also highlighted that Lowe’s has positioned itself with a lower leverage point this year, requiring a comparable sales increase of close to 1% versus the 3% needed by its competitor, Home Depot (NYSE:HD).
The fourth quarter demonstrated further signs of recovery in the home improvement sector, and despite the anticipated short-term slowdown in the first quarter, Mizuho has adjusted its estimates to reflect this temporary trend. The new price target of $300 reflects these updated expectations.
In other recent news, Lowe’s Companies Inc. reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, exceeding Wall Street expectations with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.93, surpassing the forecast of $1.81. The company also reported revenue of $18.55 billion, which was higher than the anticipated $18.19 billion. Following the earnings announcement, Truist Securities revised its price target for Lowe’s to $295 from $308 but maintained a Buy rating, indicating continued confidence in the stock’s potential despite the price target reduction. Analyst Scot Ciccarelli from Truist noted the strong performance in the professional contractor segment, although the do-it-yourself segment for big-ticket items remains under pressure. Lowe’s strategic initiatives, including new product launches and loyalty programs, continue to drive customer engagement, with notable growth in the Pro segment and online sales. The company projects 2025 sales between $83.5 billion and $84.5 billion, with expectations for comparable sales to be flat to up 1%. Operating margins are anticipated to be between 12.3% and 12.4%, supported by ongoing productivity initiatives. Despite a challenging home improvement market outlook, Lowe’s remains focused on strategic growth and market share gains.
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