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On Thursday, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities adjusted its financial outlook for Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), revising the electric vehicle giant's price target downward from $430.00 to $375.00. Despite the reduced price target, the firm maintained its Outperform rating on the stock. This comes as InvestingPro data shows 14 analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates downward, with analyst targets ranging from $120 to $515. Mizuho's analysis reflects a recalibration of Tesla's expected revenue and earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter of 2025, full year 2025, 2026, and 2027, alongside projected delivery numbers.
Tesla's revised first-quarter 2025 estimates now stand at $20.53 billion in revenue and $0.51 in EPS, down from the previous $22.30 billion and $0.57, respectively. This adjustment is more conservative compared to the consensus estimates, which are $21.92 billion in revenue and $0.44 in EPS. For the full year 2025, Mizuho now anticipates revenue of $101.03 billion and EPS of $2.60, a decrease from the earlier forecast of $108.03 billion and $2.89. The consensus estimates for the same period are slightly higher at $108.34 billion in revenue and $2.67 in EPS.
Looking further ahead, the firm has scaled back its 2026 revenue projections for Tesla from $134.25 billion to $124.33 billion, with EPS estimates also reduced from $3.87 to $3.60. The consensus for 2026 stands at $130.88 billion in revenue and $3.68 in EPS. For context, Tesla's current trailing twelve-month revenue stands at $97.69 billion, with a market capitalization of $875.54 billion. Delivery projections for the same year have been adjusted from 2.30 million units to 2.00 million, compared to the consensus of 2.18 million.
For 2027, Mizuho has tempered its expectations, predicting revenue of $149.81 billion and EPS of $4.70, a step down from the prior forecast of $159.98 billion and $4.99. This is in line with the trend of delivery estimates being revised from 2.73 million units to 2.43 million, while the market consensus is 2.50 million.
Despite these revisions, Mizuho reaffirmed its positive stance on Tesla, citing the company's continued leadership in the U.S. electric vehicle market. However, the firm acknowledged potential challenges for Tesla's market share in the European Union and China as competitors increase production. Tesla's stock has seen a significant drop, currently trading at approximately 52% below its 52-week high. With a P/E ratio of 118.73 and a beta of 2.58, InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is slightly overvalued at current levels. Mizuho's new price target implies a forward price-to-sales ratio of roughly 10.6 times the firm's 2026 earnings projection. Investors can access Tesla's comprehensive Pro Research Report, along with 20+ additional ProTips and detailed financial metrics, through an InvestingPro subscription.
In other recent news, Tesla, Inc. reported an 11% decline in its Chinese market sales for March, selling 78,828 units, according to the China Passenger Car Association. The company also exported 4,701 units during this period. Meanwhile, Tesla is in talks with India as the country seeks to attract investments from the American electric vehicle manufacturer, even as it limits market access for Chinese competitor BYD Co (SZ:002594). This strategic move by India reflects its cautious approach towards Chinese investments, as stated by Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal.
In the financial markets, Tesla is among the leading stocks in the Magnificent Seven group, showing a premarket increase alongside other tech giants like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk, recently responded to comments by Peter Navarro, a top trade adviser to President Donald Trump, who labeled him a "car assembler." Musk refuted these remarks on social media, calling them "demonstrably false." This exchange is part of a broader debate on tariffs, with Musk advocating for zero tariffs between the U.S. and Europe.
In addition, Tesla's quarterly sales have faced challenges amid criticism of Musk's work with the newly-formed "Department of Government Efficiency." Despite these hurdles, Tesla remains a focal point in both domestic and international markets, as evidenced by its ongoing discussions with India and its role in the Magnificent Seven's market performance.
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