Mizuho cuts Vail Resorts target to $215, maintains Outperform

Published 11/03/2025, 12:14
Mizuho cuts Vail Resorts target to $215, maintains Outperform

On Tuesday, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities adjusted its outlook on Vail Resorts (NYSE:MTN) shares, reducing the price target to $215 from the previous $227 while continuing to endorse the stock with an Outperform rating. The firm’s analysts cited a mix of positive and cautious signals in the company’s recent performance and future expectations.

Vail Resorts reported an EBITDA of $458.1 million, surpassing both Mizuho’s projection of $442.1 million and the wider market consensus of $447.7 million. This beat was attributed to effective cost management and a boost in visitor numbers, with Resort EBITDA also exceeding expectations at $459.7 million compared to the anticipated $443.9 million and consensus of $448.8 million. The company’s trailing twelve-month EBITDA stands at $817.46 million, demonstrating sustained operational strength. InvestingPro subscribers can access detailed financial health scores and 10+ additional ProTips for deeper analysis.

Despite these strong figures, the analysts observed a noticeable slowdown in February. Season-to-date visitation dipped by 2.5%, particularly striking against the backdrop of a robust second quarter in fiscal year 2025, where visitation was up by 6.8% year-over-year. Mizuho’s analysis suggests that February’s visitation likely fell in the high-single to low-double-digit range. Vail Resorts pointed to challenging comparisons from previous years and a general trend in the industry towards later seasonal travel as contributing factors.

Looking ahead, Mizuho expects a downturn in skier visits in the third quarter, projecting a mid-single to high-single-digit percentage decline. The analysts believe this forecast aligns with broader industry patterns, although the significant drop in February’s visitation came as an unexpected deceleration.

In conclusion, while Vail Resorts has demonstrated robust cost control and visitor engagement, market trends and recent deceleration in visitation have led Mizuho to adjust their price target. The Outperform rating signifies that, despite these challenges, the firm maintains a positive longer-term stance on the company’s stock performance. The company maintains a notable 5.78% dividend yield and has raised dividends for three consecutive years. For comprehensive analysis including Fair Value estimates and detailed financial metrics, access the full InvestingPro Research Report, available as part of the platform’s coverage of 1,400+ US stocks.

In other recent news, Vail Resorts has reported its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, surpassing earnings expectations with an EPS of $6.56 against a forecast of $6.30. The company’s revenue met expectations at $1.14 billion, showcasing robust financial performance. Vail Resorts also reported a rise in net income to $245.5 million from $219.3 million in the previous year, with Resort Reported EBITDA increasing to $459.7 million. Despite these positive financial outcomes, the company experienced a 2.5% drop in season-to-date ski visits, although lift ticket revenue increased by 4.1%. Analyst Shaun Kelley at BofA Securities maintained a Neutral rating on the stock, with a steady price target of $185.00. Vail Resorts has reaffirmed its fiscal year 2025 Resort EBITDA target at $866 million, excluding a $7 million impact from foreign exchange headwinds. The company is also focusing on expanding its European market presence and launching pass sales for the 2025-2026 season. Investors have responded positively to the financial results and steady guidance, reflecting confidence in Vail Resorts’ ability to navigate through the remainder of the fiscal year.

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