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On Wednesday, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities reiterated its Outperform rating on NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) with a steady price target of $168.00. The reaffirmation comes in the wake of NVIDIA’s recent 8-K filing, which disclosed new export restrictions imposed by the U.S. Government. These restrictions affect NVIDIA’s shipments of its H20 series products to China, including Hong Kong, and to other countries that are subject to U.S. arms embargoes. With a market capitalization of $2.74 trillion and a perfect Piotroski Score of 9 according to InvestingPro, NVIDIA remains a dominant force in the semiconductor industry despite regulatory challenges.
NVIDIA has indicated that approximately $5.5 billion in revenue may be impacted by the new regulations. This figure represents a portion of the estimated $16 billion in H20 orders, suggesting that over $10 billion worth of products could have already been shipped for the calendar year 2025 estimates. Despite the potential setback from the export restrictions, Mizuho analysts believe that NVIDIA’s near-term prospects appear positive, particularly with the shipment of the GB200 series and the expansion of testing capacity for more complex GPU racks. The company’s robust financial health is evident in its impressive 114.2% revenue growth over the last twelve months and strong liquidity position, with current assets significantly exceeding short-term obligations.
The analysts also note that the company’s long-term capital expenditure, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) for the calendar year 2026, remains a key point of interest for investors. NVIDIA is positioned to target a $1 trillion-plus AI market, a $500 billion enterprise AI segment, and a $50 trillion robotics market. The company’s stock is currently trading at approximately 20 times its fiscal year 2026 estimated earnings, with expectations of a 50% year-over-year growth in top line and earnings per share.
In summary, Mizuho’s stance on NVIDIA remains positive, emphasizing the company’s growth potential in the face of regulatory challenges. The firm’s analysis supports a continued Outperform rating and a price target that reflects confidence in NVIDIA’s market opportunities and strategic positioning.
In other recent news, NVIDIA disclosed that the U.S. government has implemented new export restrictions requiring a license for the export of its H20 chips to China, including Hong Kong and Macau. This development is anticipated to result in up to $5.5 billion in charges due to inventory and purchase commitments, impacting NVIDIA’s financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. Analysts from various firms have weighed in on these changes. William Blair maintained an Outperform rating, while Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James adjusted NVIDIA’s price target to $150, citing the export restrictions as a factor. DA Davidson reiterated a Neutral rating with a $120 price target, pointing to the uncertainty surrounding NVIDIA’s future sales to China. Evercore ISI kept an Outperform rating but reduced its revenue forecast by $3.5 billion for calendar year 2025, also lowering its earnings per share estimate. Despite these challenges, NVIDIA’s technological advancements and the continued demand for its next-generation GPUs remain points of interest for analysts.
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