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On Tuesday, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities adjusted its price target for CVR Energy (NYSE:CVI) stock, raising it marginally from $20.00 to $21.00, while reiterating a Neutral stance on the shares. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for CVI range from $16 to $22, with the stock currently trading at a notably high P/E ratio of 280x. The company’s overall financial health score is rated as "FAIR" by InvestingPro analysts. The adjustment follows Mizuho’s anticipation of CVR Energy’s first-quarter earnings falling short of the current consensus. The firm predicts an EBITDA of negative $36 million and earnings per share (EPS) of negative $1.10, which contrasts with the consensus estimates of $8 million in EBITDA and negative $0.80 EPS.
The forecasted shortfall is attributed to weaker refining results, stemming from operational disruptions during the turnaround at the Coffeyville facility. This event led to diminished volumes and margin capture for CVR Energy. Additionally, the fertilizer segment is expected to report slightly weaker results due to lower volumes. Despite these challenges, InvestingPro data shows the company maintains a strong dividend yield of 18% and has sustained dividend payments for 12 consecutive years, though recent dividend growth has declined by 22%.
Mizuho’s update to the price target is based on an adjusted earnings model and a net asset value (NAV)-based assessment. Despite the increased price target, Mizuho maintains a cautious perspective on the refining sub-sector at large, as well as on CVR Energy’s stock valuation relative to its peers.
The report indicates that the challenges faced by CVR Energy in the refining segment are primarily operational in nature, as the Coffeyville turnaround impacted production capacity. The fertilizer segment’s lower volumes also contribute to the anticipated earnings miss for the first quarter of 2025.
Mizuho’s analysis suggests that while there is a slight increase in the perceived value of CVR Energy’s stock, the overall sentiment remains neutral, reflecting a conservative outlook on the company’s near-term financial performance and sector-specific headwinds. The firm’s revised price target and earnings expectations are now set as benchmarks for investors to consider as CVR Energy prepares to report its quarterly results in approximately 34 days. InvestingPro subscribers have access to 12 additional key insights about CVI, including detailed analysis of its financial health metrics and comprehensive valuation models. Get the full picture with InvestingPro’s exclusive Research Report, available for over 1,400 US stocks.
In other recent news, CVR Energy reported a narrower-than-expected loss for the fourth quarter of 2024, with earnings per share at -$0.13, surpassing analysts’ forecast of -$0.42. The company achieved a consolidated net income of $40 million, supported by strong performance in its petroleum and fertilizer segments, despite a revenue shortfall of $1.76 billion compared to the $1.93 billion forecast. UBS analysts maintained a Neutral rating on CVR Energy, projecting a first-quarter loss due to a planned maintenance event at the Coffeyville Refinery, impacting both earnings per share and EBITDA expectations. The firm expects CVR Energy to report a loss of $0.92 per share and a $12 million EBITDA loss, contrasting with the street’s expectations of a $0.71 loss per share and a $21 million profit, respectively.
Caesars (NASDAQ:CZR) Entertainment has expanded its Board of Directors by appointing two executives from Icahn Enterprises (NASDAQ:IEP), Jesse Lynn and Ted Papapostolou, as independent directors. This move is part of a broader strategy to enhance shareholder value and includes customary standstill and voting commitments with Icahn Enterprises. CVR Energy’s recent financial maneuvers include a $408 million increase in liquidity through a Term Loan and the sale of a 50% stake in Midway Pipeline. The company also declared a cumulative cash dividend of $1.00 per share for 2024, highlighting its efforts to enhance shareholder returns amid challenging market conditions.
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