Mizuho raises Rivian stock price target to $13 from $11

On Friday, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities adjusted its outlook on Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:RIVN), increasing the price target from $11.00 to $13.00 while keeping a Neutral rating on the shares. The adjustment follows Rivian’s fourth-quarter financial results, which showcased improved profitability and a slight year-over-year increase in vehicle deliveries. According to InvestingPro data, Rivian’s current market capitalization stands at $14.32 billion, with the stock trading near its Fair Value.

Rivian’s fourth-quarter performance marked a significant milestone with the company achieving its first quarter of positive gross margin, approximately 10%, aided by regulatory credit benefits. The electric vehicle maker reported deliveries of around 14,200 units during the quarter, reflecting a 2% increase compared to the previous year. InvestingPro analysis reveals that while the company holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, with a strong current ratio of 4.7, it continues to face profitability challenges with negative EBITDA of $3.66 billion in the last twelve months.

Despite the positive results, the company’s guidance for 2025 indicates a decrease in full-year deliveries, projecting around 48,500 units, which is a 6% drop from the prior year and falls short of the consensus estimate of approximately 54,900 units. This forecast takes into account the expectation of reduced deliveries to Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), which has been covered by James Lee with an Outperform rating and a price target of $285.

Rivian is also expanding its market reach by making its RCV sales available to all buyers. The expansion strategy includes the planned addition of 30 new service locations in 2025, which would bring the total to 101. This move is part of the company’s broader effort to increase its service footprint.

Looking ahead, Rivian’s R2 model is on schedule to start production in the first half of 2026 at the Normal, Illinois facility. Mizuho’s forecast for 2026 anticipates Rivian’s deliveries to reach roughly 74,500 units. Although this figure is below the consensus estimate of around 94,000 deliveries, it surpasses the projection by S&P Global Mobility, which expects approximately 56,000 units produced. The firm notes challenges to near-term electric vehicle volumes but maintains its Neutral stance while updating estimates to reflect the new price target.

In other recent news, Rivian Automotive Inc. reported a notable revenue increase for the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching $1.73 billion, which exceeded the forecasted $1.35 billion. Despite this revenue success, the company’s earnings per share (EPS) slightly missed expectations, coming in at -$0.70 compared to the forecast of -$0.69. Analyst Garrett Nelson from CFRA raised Rivian’s stock price target to $10.00 but maintained a Sell rating, citing concerns over future guidance and potential risks related to a $6.6 billion Energy Department loan. Cantor Fitzgerald’s Andres Sheppard downgraded Rivian’s stock rating from Overweight to Neutral, reflecting a cautious outlook despite raising the price target to $15.00.

Goldman Sachs maintained its Neutral rating on Rivian, with a price target of $14.00, acknowledging improvements in the company’s cost of goods sold per vehicle and supply chain efficiency. Rivian’s focus on software and services, including advancements in Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS), was highlighted by analysts as a potential growth area. However, challenges such as potential policy headwinds and lower vehicle shipment forecasts for 2025 were noted. The company’s operational expenses for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been revised downward, indicating efforts to manage costs amid a competitive market environment.

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